thecubsfan.com

incentives and tickets

Feb
20

I haven’t written much about the Carlos stuff because I wrote it – comparing Zambrano to Zito – back in December. The world just took two months to catch up to me.

I loved finding out the incentives in Z’s deal today

He would also earn bonuses for finishing among the top five in Cy Young Award voting, being named MVP of the World Series and League Championship Series, making the All-Star game, and winning the Gold Glove and the Silver Slugger award.

Maybe they were just standards, but I prefer to believe Z insisted on that one being in there.

On another note, I don’t know exactly why, but I’m far less excited for the first real day of the season. Single Game Ticket Day’s on Friday. I’m not excited about anything this week, but I think I’m not as hyped about this team as everyone else.

These are the games I’m thinking about going after

04/14 (SAT) CIN
05/29 (TUE) FLA
06/13 (WED) SEA
07/14 (SAT) HOU

The Houston game is an extra expensive game, the rest are regular priced, and I’m skipping the last two months again just in case (and I can always find tickets if I need ’em.) I went to a White Sox game last year, and I’m now scarred for life, so probably not again.

I need to track down my Kane County tickets before Friday and figure out if I got some duplicates.

the GNP of Venezuela

Dec
28

So, Zito gets to say in the same Metro area and gets a truckload of cash from her to infinity. Works out well for him. Works out bad for the Cubs.

      FA Age  2006 ERA+   2006 K/IP
Z(ito)      28       116         8.83
Z(ambrano)  26    136         6.14

Zito’s got larger counting stats, but that’s because he’s got those two extra years in the majors, and being two years younger plays much more into Zambrano’s favor. Zito’s real edges are being a lefty starter and having more big game experience. But Z also brings the home run power.

Zito’s getting 7/18. Z seems to be better, and a better bet for the long term – so 7/19? 7/20? (I’m thinking 10/25.) Even with the Cubs expanded payroll, Carlos and Soriano would be 2/5ths to 1/3rd of the entire team budget. That’s going to be a bit crazy.

The one alternative possibility is maybe Carlos is willing to sign a lesser length deal for his next contract. I don’t have any proof or example, but I’m thinking “4 year deal to age 30 + 7 year deal to age 37 > 7 year deal to age 33 + 4 year deal to age 37”, because you’d be getting two career peak deals instead of one. But who knows? It make turn out that he can get another 7 year deal at 33 if he’s still awesome, and he’s gotta be awesome.

The other thing is, July 31st, 2008, there’s going to an amazingly big trade, because I can’t imagine the Twins being able to resign Santana when his current contract runs out.