thecubsfan.com

Tom Ricketts did the best possible job introducing himself and his family as new owners for the Cubs. Everyone liked him, so much so hat no one made much of a fuss when he mentioned tickets were going up next season. He did a good job of positioning himself as an owner who’d be focused on the business end while hiring baseball people to manage that side.

There were some quotes in the newspaper interviews – all of which were presented as exclusive interviews done beforehand, but sure seem like the same one – that I thought were particularly lighting.

Payroll: It’s going to be just a little higher than last year, just over $140mil. The Cubs are currently committed to $120 (Cot’s Baseball contracts), before counting all the arbitration eligible guys. There’s no bail out for Bradley coming.

Not to depress you, but it doesn’t look much better for 2011. Only $96mil committed, but that doesn’t include Lee or Lilly, both of which the Cubs would want to keep and may even extend this off season.

How to build a team; Ricketts noted repeatedly that the Cubs spent the 3rd most on payroll, so money isn’t the issue. Instead, he said “The way you consistently make the playoffs is to have the right player-development process, to have the right guys drafting the right talented kids and the right coaches and scouts working together to see them be productive at the major-league level.”

If this is actually the way they go, and they start pouring more money in to the draft and the minor league system, the franchise is a lot better off.

Jim Hendry has a free roll this year, but Ricketts was very clear that they’d reevaluate things after the system. Two straight playoffs appearances buys you some time, but maybe not more than that.

the Triangle building!: Did this talk in 2005? Maybe before? And how many sketches have we seen already? Lost track of all this, except for the part where I’m completely tired of hearing about it. Which is OK, because I think there’s actually going to be some thing building in that lot next year. The overall plan seems to improve the stadium, but try to generate more revenue outside of it.

I wish I could find the quote for this one, just to have it later when it becomes necessary to have proof that they actually said it, but I believe what I read was the Cubs would work on a plan over the next year, and build in the ‘11-12 off season. I wish it could happen sooner, or that stuff like moving offices out of the stadium to clear more room for the players could happen right away, but I think I’ll settle for having some progress.

Items that aren’t happening

Naming rights to the stadium were pretty definitely shot down. As were other big ideas people had been dreaming up – no moving for a year to redo the stadium, no jumbotron on a rooftop. They’re going to keep Wrigley as it, just make it look more presentable.

The one notable thing not mentioned: the stake in Comcast Sports Net. That whole deal has seemed wrong from the start; it makes everyone feel good to split that equally when it was created, but it’s always been clear the Cubs were adding much more than 1/4th of the value. The Cubs could support their own channel, and it fits with the model of making more money by looking to extend the reach of the franchise. That situation, or their radio/TV deals with WGN, didn’t seem to come up in any discussion.

Signs he’s got a sane head

It wasn’t just saying there’s no curse, and that people who believe in a curse will be moved to a less cursed them, though that’s nice. It’s reading that he used to be in fantasy baseball leagues, that he’s read Bill James Abstracts, and that he seems to be in line with the Billy Beane playoffs belief: “The reason the team has never won the World Series is they were either bad teams that played up to expectations or they were good teams that had bad luck in the playoffs. the end, that’s what it comes down to. To make it any bigger than that, is doing a disservice to the players who are here today and the coaches, and it’s just foolishness.” And still, he’s pretty clear he’s staying out of the way of the baseball ops, leading them to prove or disprove their own abilities without interference.

This is a guy who knows what he’s doing, and cares enough about the team to make it work. In the middle years of this decade, the Tribune made an honest effort to improve the team, to take the blame off themselves for not winning a World Series. Not quite sure that was true the last couple years, where the fortunes of team seemed to support the rest of the corporation, but I think it’s going to be very true from here on out. That’s all I want from an owner.

So. Uncharted 2 comes out in about 24 hours, so there goes the chances of getting anything done the rest of the week. It’s not like I ever finish writing a post for this without distractions, and this will make sure I won’t (hopefully!) Instead of wasting, I figure I might as well reuse – in the form of a list. Assuming I can even finish THIS post, which seems iffy since I already have been distracted.

- one about my hard drive crash. Of all I’ve had (on every single windows computer), this was the first time where it didn’t hurt much; just needed to reinstall stuff on a new hard drive, because 90% of my data is on iPod or The Cloud, and the other 10% is stuff I wouldn’t have thought about backing up (custom dictionaries?), stuff I haven’t actually used in years, or stuff I’ve completely forgotten about and will only realize I miss a long time from now. unfinished because I couldn’t find words to express point I wanted to make; also semi-boring

- one about deciding what Win7 computer I should get next month: a small laptop so I could do the most of the stuff I do at home when not a home (though that’s not actually why I don’t do it at home, and plus I already use my iTouch for a lot of that), a tower to do the same stuff I already do slightly faster – or maybe spending that money in any one of may better ways. unfinished because of extreme boring-ness, and no one else could possible care

- one about the first round of the baseball playoffs and related news: is it neat that actual baseball writers are looking at my Bradley->Rays idea? (Yes!) Does it mean anything? (No! Writers clearly just looking at teams for dead money guys to go back the other way, but are just filling up inches and have no actual inside info) Could I be happier that this sale is almost over (Yes!) How much of the LDS have I watched? very little, because I needed some separation. Do I gain any happiness from the Cardinals being swept? (no – Cubs still didn’t win.) Do the Cubs gain anything from how the Cardinals lost? (YES, if St. Louis is silly and decides to not sign Holliday after this – and who even knows about Duncan and LaRussa.) What’s the one stat from the other playoff series that was stunning? (Chone Figgins leading the league in walks; he’s getting crazy money this offseason, and very unlikely to be on a Chicago team.) skipped because when do I ever write about baseball here? really now

- one about my new avatar, now that we totally crashed on re-entry not done because I still don’t have a new avatar, and also too obscure – no, that usually doesn’t work

- one about how Joe Versus The World is clearly the Velvet Underground of wrestling podcasts, because maybe only a hardcore group listened to them all (so thrilled when we first reached triple digits), but everyone single one of them has their own podcast on BlogTalkRadio now. rejected for not really having any more to write except the one awesome/ludicrous line

- one about how I feel about the new NBC show Community skipped because I haven’t actually gotten to watch any of the episodes yet! but I’m sure they’re great, as well as all the other TV I haven’t gotten to

- one about my fantasy football teams not posted because no one cares about anyone else’s fantasy football team, ever, we’re all just being polite towards each other

- one about the US/Honduras! not done because I’m still at least a year from faking I know about soccer on any level

- one about subject I’ve completely blanked about at the moment not done because I won’t remember this until I attempt to fall asleep. May scribble something down on piece of paper, which will promptly be lost

Yea, I think that does it.

Because the only thing I love more than being a cynic is being a contrarian. In no order.

1. No one got seriously hurt. Low bar, but still. Yes, they lost Ramirez for half the season, but I mean more of injuries that will carry over to 2010. No one’s elbow or shoulder was irrevocably damaged. Rich Harden, Angel Guzman, and Carlos Marmol were all involved, and none has new surgery scars and loose plans for returning in midseason. Soriano is getting knee work done, but that should leave him in a better spot than he was for most of this season. There are question marks here, but not due to a hoped for physical recovery.
2. Derrek Lee was great.D-Lee only played 141 games, due to little injuries here and there, and maybe that’s gotta be the standard going forward.  Playing 10 games less than usual prevented him from setting career marks in counting stats, but his rate stats – what he did when he played – were as great as they’ve been since the spectacular 2005 season. 393 OBP/579 SLG. The double plays were traded for home runs (9% less ground balls, 12 % more flyballs), and a lot better results. He was a 5 WAR player, one of the top 25 non-pitchers in the league (defense counts) and isn’t near as close to being done as feared in April.The batter closest to 0 WAR – in other words, a guy worth exactly about as a random freely available AAA player – is Alexis Rios. The universe is awesome.
3. Angel Guzman survived a full season.

   Guzman’s been on radar of Cubs’ fans since 2003, but he’s been on the radar of arm doctor’s even longer. After years of bouncing around the farm system and barely making cameos on the major league roster before heading right to the DL, this was the year he finally got to put it together. No one’s still hoping he’ll be the starter he was originally promised, but becoming the most solid & consistent pitcher out of the bullpen is plenty enough. 61 IP, 47 Ks, with only 23 BB and 41 Hits against him. After being a guy who had a fastball and didn’t show any much, he threw his slider 1/3rd of the time, and it was pretty effective. If the Cubs had picked their 2009 closer based on how well they were pitching in this season, not next or last, it would’ve been Guzman. As is, he’s looking like the logical 8th inning guy for next season, as part of a cheap & effective duo to close out games.

4. Randy Wells was the happy surprise of the yearBefore the season, I was filling out TangoTiger’s Community Forecast, putting in my guesses for playing times for the Cubs. I remember this, because I saw Randy Wells name and could not even recall who he was. And then I selected “0 IP”. The important isn’t that I’m wrong (that’s never important), but that it’s hard to say Randy Wells exceeded expectations. He was so far off the radar, no one had any expectations for him.Wells was somewhere between 8-10 on the starting pitcher depth chart, and didn’t really get the shot in the rotation because he was good  (though he was in Iowa), or because someone else needed replacing, but because there were no good leftys in the bullpen and Lou thought Sean Marshall was more valuable pitching a couple batters every couple days than starting games (dubious.) Wells wasn’t supposed to start more than a game or two, but kept pitching well and hanging around until they couldn’t get rid of him. Now he stands as a 3rd or 4th starter, someone who’s expected to be in the rotation next season

   Even for those who projected him, in the process of projecting everyone, didn’t see him being this good – he walked less than expected, gave up less homeruns than expected, and threw a lot more innings than anyone expected.

   There are plenty of one year wonders – Rich Hill comes to mind – and I wasn’t thrilled about how many innings they put on his arm after it stopped mattering – but whatever happens next doesn’t taken away from what happened this year. Most pitchers would be thrilled to have one 12 win, 3.05 ERA season. He’s got that banked, everything else just adds on to it.

5. Sean Marshall replaced Alfonso Soriano in right field.Season may have peaked right there. (Let’s put aside they lost that game. Or, if that bugs you too much, put Reed’s catch in Milwaukee here instead.)
6. Ryan Dempster was actually worth his contract4 years/52 for a guy who’s had just 2 good seasons as a starter (but the good sense to have one of them just before free agency) is sort of the kind of move that’s left the Cubs in the finical situations they’re in. Hey, at least this year, it worked out fine. 200 IP, durable. Strikeouts were down, but his walks per 9 were as low as he’s had in any season ever. He didn’t get as much defensive help as last year, and he gave up more homeruns, but he did enough to make Hendry look good this year. At least on that one.
7. Kosuke Fukudome had a non-disastrous season Last year, he put together 3 good months before completely falling apart. This year, he had 2 good months, one horrible, 2 good months, 1 horrible (which no one noticed because everyone had stopped caring.) At this rate, they’ll have to invent a new month for him to be great in by the end of his contract!It was no real coincidence that the downturns in Fukudome’s play correspond with Reed Johnson’s DL stints. This year, the Cubs figured out the rule to play by – under no circumstances should he start against a lefty – and stuck with it as best as they could.

   This is secretly why Sam Fuld probably isn’t making the 2010 team; Reed or no Reed, the Cubs have to get a right hitting platoon partner for Kosuke. Sam hits lefty. If they do keep Reed or get another guy who can play all 3 OF spots, they’re going to want another bat as the fifth outfielder, not Fuld. Someone will get hurt and he’ll come up, but he probably won’t be there opening day.

8. Alfonso Soriano led off for the last time July 3rd. About 2.5 seasons late, but it was right to get a new start on Independence Day.
9. A Ram was great when he was on the fieldI’m stealing from the TV broadcast, but look at these numbers: .317, 29 HR, 128 RBI. The injury robbed him of playing time, but not ability. If he gets back onto the field for 150 next year, he’ll can be counted onto have great numbers once again
10. The sale is (almost) done This franchise has been in various levels of limbo for the last 2.5 years, as the sale has dragged along at least a 1.5 years longer than promised. That limbo bar got awful low last offseason; the moved that were made were made in environment where everything had to be cash equal or just about. If there had been an owner instead of a trustee in charge, would they have been swayed by fan support on keeping certain players? (Would they have made it worse?) Who knows, but I’m just sort of frustrated it with it being a concern. This process is taken a toll on this team, preventing things that need to be done from being moved on (which maybe needs to be another post), and this franchise will be significantly better off once it’s removed from this uncertainty.

I kept pushing this off, but instead of just waiting until IWA-MS is back, I might as well get this up while it’s fresh in my mind.

Our hero Joe Gagne appeared on the Tom & [blank] Show, talking about the history of IWA-MS’s TPI tournament.

I also highly recommend the previous two editions of the Tom & [insert name here] show, where Tom & MaestroKen talk about crazy IWA-MS fans and more crazy IWA-MS fans. Even if you don’t know the people involved, it’s good stories about strange people.

If you want even more IWA-MS, check out Scott Christ’s recaps of 04 and 05 shows, plus Joe and myself on going to the 2005 TPI. Look how I excited I was back then, and out of control of the bold tag. Scott’s way out of wrestling now, but he runs a superb boxing site for SBNation: Bad Left Hook.

I really didn’t have strong feelings with IWA-MS when they “died” – not because they’ll be back in some form, but they were dead in the form most people cared about for a long time and had been irrelevant for a few years. Though it’s not really like *I* went to anything – just the ‘04 and ‘05 TPIs. I think I’m good for one big meaningful indy show every six months.

The 2005 TPI is one of my most favorite indy experiences ever, even though I think now I remember less things from the show (4 Super Dragons, Hero’s turn) then I do from the Steak N’ Shake after (chauffeuring Joe Gagne over, kids having sex in the rest room, telling people my actual name only for them to forget it by the end of the night like magic, randomly telling Adam Summers to get away from Zach Arnold) – and there’s a half dozen moments more I only remembered when I read Joe’s recap. I think MAYBE I’m going to GALLI this weekend, but I really need to kidnap people to entertain me. Or introduce myself to people there, a completely crazy concept on all levels.

No wrestlers have keys to my house.

Not making it to the Cougars game. Not making it within 200 miles.

They lose tonight, and it’s over. So it’ll be over.

Why is it that, when I was watching tv fifteen minutes ago, I couldn’t do anything but lay down on my couch and drift away, but now that I’m laying in bed, all I can do is stare at the ceiling, wide awake and figuring out posts?

Since I’m thinking and not napping, I thought I might as well compromise and start typing away on my itouch. Hooray for the wordpress app.

Quite feel like I’m paying the price for the weekend: cougars game Saturday night, dragon gate Sunday, early cougars game Monday. Plus a crazy marathon session of Fight Night in there – never more happy to win a fake belt – and all multiplied by (typical unexplained part here.)

Think I’ve now spent more time talking about the dragon gate show than It actually lasted. Cougars was fun because it was the first time in over a month I’d been, only having 2 tickets for august and getting pulled elsewhere both times. I’m kinda excited for the playoffs, despite all logic against it. Besides being minor league, they’re also not really the same team that qualified for the playoffs. Many of those who won the first half division championship got called or got overtaken by this year’s draft class, and the team hasn’t seemed too strong.

I’m still excited just for the concept of playoffs. It’s the one time of the year when development takes a back seat and teams ge to totally play for today, not tomorrow. And I haven’t actually gotten to see these in three years; last year, I got called away out of town after i had bought my tickets, and they just missed them. In 2006, I followed the team all the way to the exciting city of Beloit (not exciting, many high schools have better stadiums) and I’d hoping the cougars will last long enough for me to form excuses to drive around the midwest. Burlington on a Wednesday is a no go, but I’d go wher eever this weekend.

Short posts are posts too.

Len & Bob drove me crazy Tuesday, talking about their bingo cards as part of the Cubs giveaway that night.

Craziness can be the best inspiration. Print and play Monday night:

I don’t really believe what the Score has been pushing the last couple of days, that Lou and the Cubs are done with each other as soon as they’re mathematically eliminated. (Though, they always have to get themselves a shiny new toy each season and there’s not going to be payroll to get a player.) Their making it sound as if management wants Lou gone, while every other impression is management loves Lou and loves how he’s not throwing people under the bus.

HOWEVER. Tonight’s loss leans heavily on Lou. With the bases loaded and two out in the top of the sixth, (starting pitcher) Tom Gorzelanny came up. Gorzelanny had settled down from early, had only given up 2 runs, and only thrown 82 pitches. There’s a good case for him staying in there, but it’s also defensible to be a put a strong pinch hitter in this spot – the Cubs usually need runs, and this was a key moment to get them. The chance can’t be wasted; the bullpen has fallen apart and was guaranteed to give up an unknown quantity of runs.

Righty on the mound. Options:

Fuld: 355/474/516
Fox: 297/359/564
Fontenot: 223/300/387
Soto: 221/306/368
Miles: 170/212/214

Lou picked Miles. In an all or nothing situation, he picked the worst batter versus right handers on the team (including even the pitchers, only Angel Guzman has worse numbers – but he only has 3 ABs), saving Fuld for a double switch that never came, saving Fox for a pinch hit appearance that never mattered.

The best quality, the most enjoyable aspect of Lou’s managing style is he’s never been afraid to shoot all his bullets, and deal with whatever problems came up when they came up. This time, he played it conservative, the Cubs got a groundout on 2 pitches, and the game was over in the next inning.

In July, I thought this regular season could either be like 2008, where the Cubs got even with the division leader and the leader could no longer keep up, or like 2003, where one head to head series near the end of the season determined it all. A week or so ago, I thought this was going like 2005, where the Cubs seemed to be 4-6 games out for three months straight, always a win streak away from making it super tight but never getting one, then giving up the chase late. I don’t have a recent year in my head to compare what’s going on – they either are never in it, or fade a lot later. This is an old school swoon, the likes we haven’t seen in some time.

The light’s not out, but it’s looking pretty dim.

Was walking outside around 11 (a totally normal thing), and I noticed there was a car sitting in the street behind our row of houses. A car slowly driving behind the houses and slowing to a stop for a moment is not new, but a car just parked there is kinda strange even for this vacant lot.

I was walking that way anyway, so my plan was to casually look and see what was going on, just because that’s always fun. Halfway there, the car’s engine roars to life, squeals around the corner, and zooms right towards me.

It occurs to me maybe I should stop walking in that direction.

Car stops before the curve, turns around to the right, sharply, and speds back down the road they were sitting in, going so fast you’d think a dramatic explosion was occurring behind them.

I watch it fly down to the red light at the end of the street, slightly surprised it bothered to stop there.

And I shrugged and moved on.

How many times did Len bring up the “tough roster decision they’ll have to make on Monday?” Five times? Fifteen? Fifty? It’s really not that hard…

Fuld—–>Johnson
Hart—–>Guzman
Hoffpauir—->A Ram

First two are really obvious. Everything Sam Fuld is doing is what Reed Johnson normally does, so you don’t need both. Kevin Hart has barely pitched, and then usually only in mop up – Patton can go back to doing that.

Micah is the only questionable call, but even then, he’s a guy who hasn’t been used much since interleague play ended. With Ramirez back, Jake Fox makes more sense as the 1B/LF/RF, since they can also sub him in at 3B and he’s hitting a lot better. Micah should go down just to get his timing back, because he’s seemed way off when he has gotten in.

The actual tough roster move is going to come when Aaron Miles is ready to go again. If the Cubs expect that to happen before the All Star break and they plan on going to 11 pitches at that point until after the break (which probably would be just for a few games), that may change the decision a little bit. They’d be bringing up a pitcher after the All Star break, and whoever got sent down today would be eligible, so perhaps they might plan ahead.

If that doesn’t play into it, and they think Jeff Baker can add power like they thought, and A Ram doesn’t seem to be having any problems, it’s either Fox or Fontenot getting sent down, probably depending on how they’re hitting at the exact moment the decision is made. Either way, it really should be Miles not coming back, but they’ll make a salary > contributions choice, I’m sure.