Party Down is as good as advertised. (2) So good, that I only took a quick look at the score, saw it was 7-1 (hooray, A-Ram homerun, that opt out is coming back into play) and then completely forgot about it. I was just starting to watch episode 6 when my laptop started to make noise – sounded like an ad, couldn’t find an ad. Found that Gamecast, and noticed it was the usual post game video highlight roll MLB.com automatically shows after a game was over. Took a quick look at the score and – maybe it was a double take, maybe it was a triple take, but most likely it was a quintuple take. 14-7, Cubs. (4)

This is where we are in the 2010 Cubs season. The Cubs pull off their biggest win of the season, the most thrilling sequence of the year, and me and most everyone home watching preferred to watch canceled sitcoms. Which, more than family or age, is why Lou Pinella is retiring this season.

Look. I don’t think the team’s standings are particularlly Lou’s fault. (3) I don’t think the team put together was much good, but when your two best hitters over the last four years suddenly become two of the worst hitters in the league, it really doesn’t matter. Z’s not pitching well didn’t help, the bullpen didn’t help, but that stuff could’ve gone well and they would still be under .500 if Ram was hitting .150 and batting 4 (5). This team was doomed with any manager.

I’m not one who really cares if Lou is yelling at players or umpires in view of the dugouts. I’d rather see actual actions, and he seemed slow to make changes until situations forced his hands. Lou seemed to mentally check out on the season by mid June, and the team needed more than that. Lou might have not been able to do anything different, but if he makes no difference and doesn’t care, then it’s okay to give that job to someone else. Lou stood to gain something if he could bring a World Series to the Cubs, but he had nothing to lose if he didn’t – it’s always the Cubs fault, not the manager. This team is going to have an even tougher time next season, and it’ll need someone with a bigger stake in it’s success.

The real news today wasn’t Lou retiring. He wasn’t coming back once the team struggled earlier and never recovered. It’s been clear for a couple years that Ryne Sandberg would be taking over in 2011, unless he didn’t want it or screwed it for himself. The real news was Tom Ricketts saying Jim Hendry would be GM going into the next season. Ricketts said it in a way where he could still fire Hendry early in 2011 and not be telling a lie, but Hendry is going to be the guy putting together next year’s team. This is news only because of how poorly his moves have gone the last couple of years. Just like the guys anchoring the team, Hendry has a long term deal (two more years) and the club doesn’t want to eat the extra years.

I wasn’t watching the game because games like the first half of this one had already made the season irrelevant. The Phillies series was a nice flash back to the two playoff runs, a fun reminder of the best stretch of Cubs baseball in my lifetime. A lot of the people who’ve made up the core of these teams are going away at the end of the season, and it was nice to be reminded why we’re going to miss them. It was good bye. This series, everything from now to the end of the season, is like an awkward reunion right after the goodbye. Everyone ready to move on and looking for easy excuses to call it off. They make us play out the season, but not actually watch it. (6)

There is the slight chance this week was the start of something very cool. Because I’m a sucker, that’ll be enough to get me to pay attention to this for a while longer. It doesn’t take much.

(1) ESPN Magazine’s article on the Dodger’s divorce was good if you hadn’t been following the situation at all, but nothing really new. The Rashard McCants profile was good, but I’d read that before it the physical magazine had gotten to the mailbox, which is the story of reason I don’t actually read the magazine most weeks. I’m reading Breaks of the Games at the pace of five pages every two weeks and probably should’ve just worked on that.

(2) It took me a few episodes to get there. There was a two minute span where I said “wow, I like these people” and then “wow, I HATE these people” (7), but I was sold on it being a great show by the gun to the head bit. There’s still stuff I don’t like; there are characters who are not so much characters as one line jokes which are hit over and over again. I’m not saying Writer Of Hard Sci Fi and Pretty Boy Dumb Actor, to pick two, do not exist in the world, but they are so amazingly 1 dimensional (or maybe even a half a dimension) that I would hope never to meet them, much less watch their antics on a weekly basis. the relationship was pretty predictable from their first scene together, but those characters at least surprise me now and then. They make the show great, and I can’t wait to go back and watch the rest. (8)

(3) Though it’d be nice if he actually realized Soto can hit and moved him up in the order.

(4) and so I started watching the game from where I left off and typing this post

(4) Which is actually Lou’s fault too, but I’m trying to be kind.

(6) this is a horrible, horrible post. If you’re actually reading this, it’s because I hoped to expel this particular bit of horribleness from my mind in hopes that I’d have a less for the rest of my life. I apologize to you, you thought I was actually posting again, and I go and do this to you. Usually I just delete the horrible stuff but I’m really to tired to keep up appearances. And yet, I’m writing this post near midnight, I wonder why I’m always tired.

(7) which reveals me as someone who talks to the TV at times. It’s a long week.

(8) And then maybe watch more quality TV? Either Veronica Mars, the Wire, or the full run of WMAC Masters that Kidnapped by Ninjas found? I thought that show was absurdly fascinating when I was watching it back in the day, I can’t even imagine how it holds up today. I’d do podcasts on that now, totally.

You know it’s a blow out when there’s an actual pinch hitter not due to injury. There is no strategy in minor league baseball.

Always nice to end it on a line drive tag out double play.

CA – OK
1B – need new starter
2B – need new starter
SS – OK
3B – stuck with current starter

LF – stuck with current starter/borderline OK
CF – OK
RF – offseason salary dump?

SP1 (Dempster) – OK
SP2 (Silva) – OK
SP3 (Zambrano) – stuck with current starter?
SP4 (Lilly) – need new starter
SP5 (Wells) – uncertain

CL – OK
LH Setup – OK
RH Setup – OK (assuming it’s Cashner)
everyone else – uncertain -> need new reliever

The Cubs can, and probably will, fill any rotation hole and most of the bullpen from the minors. They’ve got the guys to try, and they can use the money saved from Lilly elsewhere (needed to improve positions, most likely eating a salary.) Signing one vet for the pen would not be a surprise.

They have the replacement for RF, and finding a new home for Fukudome might be priority #1 for whomever is the GM next year. (I presume Zambrano will be either settled this year, or proved unmovable for anyone and be put on the back burner.)

The Cubs do not have a major league caliber replacement for 1B or 2B. They could bring back Lee and keep Theriot, but both would almost certainly command more than what they’ll produce, and there’s going to be great pressure to shake things up. The big problem is the guys the fans generally like (Theriot, Lee, Lilly) are the easiest to move away from to get to that change. This will not go well.

The one thing I forgot, but is true of all almost games which have where you can create your own character, is it’s frustrating not to get all of the character options until you beat the game. After I’ve beat the game, I’m a lot less interested in who I’m using, you know?

My PS3 username is thecubsfan21. Someone has the non-numbered version; I forget I don’t ever six months or so. I may or may not accept friend requests. I used to not be in a hurry to do it, but now that I don’t care that someone beats by best times on Burnout Paradise, I’m much better.

Went to Cougars vs LumberKings game last night, the first game officially on my truncated ticket package this year. There are 3 more games in the next two weeks, very annoyingly designed. Game was zooming around for the first 7 innings. No one knew the game wasn’t half over by then.

I’ve switched from pencil and paper to using the iScore baseball app. This was the fourth game I’ve tried; it took me the first three to figure out what I was doing. I’m still probably only something like 98% accurate, but that’s about usual the other way. You can compare to the official scoring here.

That last chart is the pitching data. You can actually chart pitch location and type, but I’m thinking most people aren’t sitting directly behind home plate (and have strong pitching identification skills) and wish this had an alternate display. Maybe it’s there and I still need to find it.

Notes & assorted weirdness

• this iteration of the Cougars is not very good. They’re well out of the playoff position for the 1st half, and will be out of it again in the 2nd half unless there’s some hitting reinforcements.
• Blackhawks vs Flyers started after this game, finished before the end of this game, and featured more scoring. Game drew just over 7,000 despite going head to head with a Stanley Cup game, though maybe it was more like 5,000 in the building.
• Cougars were down to their last out when they got two runs to tie it up. This seemed like a good idea at the time.
• Joshua Lansford pitches so slow.
• Daniel Carroll’s plate appearance in the 12th was the most minor league moment of the game. With Baron on second and no one else on, Carrol grounded the ball back to the pitcher, who fielded it cleanly and spotted Baron running for third. The pitcher ran at the runner, forcing him to run back towards second. Pitcher threw to the shortstop, covering second, who chased Baron towards third. Shortstop threw to third baseman, who ran the runner back towards second. This time, the third baseman seemed to wait too long to make the throw, only getting it to the man covering second (the second baseman now) as Baron was touching second.Smart play, because Carroll had over-agressively ran past first all the way to second, believing Baron would get tagged out. Instead, Baron got to second right before Carroll did. Second baseman tags the hitter Carroll after he steps on the base, then Baron as he steps off the base too late (!!!) for a strange double play.
• The last pitcher for the Cougars, Juan Nunez, is actually the back up catcher. He was throwing 85-88 (no breaking ball!) and got two strike counts and a swinging strike, but could not get out of the jam.
• I tried to flip my cap for a rally hat in the bottom of the 15th, but it wouldn’t sit right on my head. I take the blame for the loss.
• This was a fireworks night, but they needed too late for fireworks, so everyone who stuck around gets to exchange it for a ticket. Hooray free baseball.

Yep. I don’t remember what projections I was looking at; there are many out by now, and I’ve looked at a lot of them. Which ever one it was (the one that was a sum of many projections, run many times?), they pegged the Cubs for about 83 wins, with a range of 72-90. That’s exactly where I’d have them based on this roster. They’re low 80s with a 10 game swing either way. It’s a fault of management to be that low, but at least there’s a chance.

The more I think about it, the less concerned I am about the inexperience of the bullpen. If you believe the vast majority of bullpen arms are unpredictable and unreliable from season to season – which I do, because otherwise they wouldn’t be bullpen pitchers – then you might as well go cheap and promising with it than expensive and flawed. There are going to be some games blown because the rookies blow a lead, and it will be the roster mistake which will get Hendry in the most trouble (because there’s nothing more dramatic than a game lost you should’ve won), but it’s hardly the worst thing here. This is a sounder move than 2010′s Scott Eyre and Bobby Howry.

Making decisions on 40 ABs in spring training is a great way to screw yourself up, but if everyone believes Tyler Colvin’s true upside is major league fourth outfielder, what’s so horrible about using him in that role?

Xavier Nady playing outfield despite being unable to throw the ball is the underplayed story of the season. Really, he shouldn’t be doing anything more than pinch hitting, but they’re making noise as if he’s going to actually start and platoon with Fukudome a little bit. Runners taking extra bases are going to get old quick.

This team kinda shifted to the back of my mind the last couple weeks, but I’m exicited to get this started now (and kinda disappointed I didn’t figure out a way to join a fantasy league I wouldn’t hate.) Maybe it’s the 80 degree weather that’s making it feel like baseball should already be here – probably won’t feel it quite the same in a couple weeks when it’s freezing again.

There is a catch: it’s a subscriber only show over at F4online. If you’ve got $10 and you’re not a subscriber, it’s exactly what you’d think: worth the money.

Plus, you get the Wrestling Observer Newsletter, and I hear that’s good too.

Phoenix was nice. I don’t know if it even got to 70 degrees during the weekend I was there, but it felt like 90 from where I was coming from. It looked a lot different. Lots of empty areas; where as here, those empty areas tend to be places where someone had plans to build something and gave up half way thru, Arizona is a lot of subdivisions of empty houses next to tracts of untouched grass and not much else. Not a lot of grass though. You leave a lot of land unattended to here, and the weeds are taller than people by the time it’s cold. Phoenix grass is low to the ground and sparse.

The grass still is green, and so is the cacti, and so is just about nothing else. Where they’ve given up on grass, they’ve replaced it with rock and and sand, and the people designing houses and others buildings are a bit too attached to theme. The color palette seems to range from light sand all the way up dark sand. It was explained to me that the cactus are often secured to the ground to prevent people from stealing them, and it didn’t make much sense to me at the time why you’d want to steal something as painful to transport as a cactus. A few days later, I decided the people must desperately want a non-sand colored object in our life.

The spring training ballparks all seemed on the nicer side for what are essentially minor league parks. Besides Ho Ho Kam, we stopped by Tempe Diablo Stadium (home of insanely expensive concessions) and Peoria Stadium (a nice new two team facility, even if it does have a surprisingly small and generic gift shop), and went by a great majority of the other ones. I think, of all of them they saw, Ho Ho Kam looked the least modern. It definitely felt like they were desperately trying to squeeze as many seats as possible and had run of room for more. The extra grandstand extensions most of all looked ill fitting, like they were in such a hurry to get more seats than they didn’t have time to make it look good.

The Cubs played Arizona the first day, an exciting 8-7 comeback win. I left my camera in my luggage for that. Besides the backups making an inspired really to win, the highlight was Justin Upton crushing a ball to left field for a grand slam, the ball connecting near the top of the scoreboard.

I did take photos the next day (including at the SEA/SD building), when the White Sox annihilated the Cubs. I really need to get a scanner so you can appreciate my efforts at scoring the game. In some way, it wasn’t as tricky as I thought, because they were only planning to play 2 groups of players (they ended up with more; this is the game where Andres Blanco got hurt, and essentially lost his spot on the roster.) The Cubs give out lists of their extended roster, so figuring out who is who based on the number is too troubling; the trouble is figuring out who goes where in the batting order, or at least managing things until the new guys come up and you can verify their spots.

The last game never actually took place, but I had lots of photos of various warmups. I tried to get video of Starlin Castro taking batting practice (and special fungo fielding practice; he had one notable bad backhand try, and got a supportive lecture from Alan Trammell after.) The rain storm was the kind of rain storm where they’d probably try starting if this was a real game, and they did make an effort to dry things out as best as they could, but then suddenly gave up.

It did come down really hard shortly after they gave up on the game, but there are no long rain storms in Phoenix (expert knowledge of three days), and it was clear and drying up within an hour. Still got every game canceled.

Only baseball can get people to be so thrilled to see scrimmages. Basketball barnstorms into towns they don’t ever go, because the usual towns aren’t going to pay for 5 extra games that don’t matter. Football preseason is a plague. Baseball preseason is just inconsequential, but the locations and the timing make it feel much more like a rebirth (and much less like time killing.) I’m not sure if it’s something I’d want to do again, but that more of a personal thing (feels like I spend too much time on the irrelevant, or the barely relevant), but if you haven’t done it, I’d recommend it. It definitely feels like a vacation.

Locks That We Knew Going Into Camp and I Really Can Stop Mentioning,

01 SS Theriot
02 RF The Fuk
03 1B D Lee
04 3B A Ram
05 CF Byrd
06 LF Soriano
07 CA Soto
08 2B Fontenot

09 SP Dempster
10 SP Z
11 SP Wells – not that you would’ve known it today.

12 CL Marmol
13 RP Grabow

14 ?P Marshall – the position is another argument…
15 ?P Gorz – …and no one seems to have the first clue…
16 ?P Silva – …on even who’s leading here…

17 CA Hill
18 2B Baker

And I think that’s it, at least coming in. There’s three more who had/have hopes of being included

possible opening day Disabled List!

DL SP Ted Lilly – this one keeps bouncing back and forth like a metronome. Even best case, it makes since for him to start on the DL and get the extra warmup starts, since they may only need four starters anyway.

19 PH Xavier Nady – I don’t like the idea of an OF who can’t throw until June; doesn’t really work at most any position, but since the idea here was to platoon him with Fukudome, that’s not very helpful. I’d start him on the DL until he can at least do something, but Lou brushed off that idea.

DL RP Angel Guzman – :( At least he got one good season. I’ll be shocked to ever see him pitch in the ML again.

Up four grabs

That still leaves 6 spots, and four of those are in the bullpen. One of those jobs is already accounted for:

20 RP Esmalin Caridad – already know how this one plays out. He’s got a live arm, so Lou will be thrilled to give him a shot. He’s got a walking problem, so Lou will bury him deep in the pen. This is your anointed setup man!

I’ll get back to pitching in a couple spots, but the bench is easier to finish out

21 OF (who can back up all three) – this was clearly supposed to be Sam Fuld coming into the season, but he might have had it snaked from him. Tyler Colvin does not have the positionally flexibility (he’s really more of a corner guy) but has been killing the ball and has that 1st round draft pick tag. James Adduci has hit a little less, but still really good and offers more defense. Colvin’s thought of a prospect (though I doubt he’ll be much more than he is at this point), but Adduci isn’t really and it’s not as though the Cubs would be risking a great upside by having him sit on the bench 6 days out of 7. No idea how this is turning out.

22 ?? – This spot is supposed to be backup shortstop, which means it’d be Andres Blanco, but he’s been hurt a week. It was never going to be Starlin Castro…but now it seems like it actually may be some other position entirely.

Bringing in Chad Tracy and Kevin Millar on NRIs never made much since, because there really wasn’t going to be a spot for them on the 25. That math changes if Fontenot can actually play a little SS – there’s no need for the fourth guy, and there’s room for an extra 1B/3B type. (As I’ve pointed out too many times, this is why they shouldn’t have bothered to keep Fontenot, but he’s hitting good so I should lay off.) If this spot exists, it looks like it’s Millar over Tracy, with Hoffpauir and LeHair trailing far behind. I don’t know that any of them will actually hit when the calendar turns to April, but the bench could use one more hitter so it’s worth trying.

The thing is, Fontenot has played all of four innings of SS. Maybe he’s been putting in a lot of work on the back fields, or maybe that was enough for Lou, but I’m not so convinced this plan is actually happening.

And all of that was easier than the last three bullpen spots.

23 + 24 + 25 RP (or maybe starter?)

Gorz and Marshall probably won’t make the rotation, or at least won’t be there for long, so there’s no specific need for a LHP over a RHP. Past that? Who knows. Everyone left who’s pitched, minus those not on the 40 man roster, and those cut already

• RHP M Parisi – Rule 5 pick, seemed to be here as a starter not at all (and definitely won’t be hid like Patton last year); has been good in short stints
• RHP J Samardzija – coming in, the idea seemed to be start in ML or AAA with no chance of bullpen; does Guzman’s injury change that? Has been hit hard and not looked good.
• LHP J Gaub – on the fringe of the bullpen coming in, has pitched good
• RHP M Mateo – not this year and lit up
• RHP J Stevens – probably had a spot at the start, but has been hit hard, who knows
• RHP J Berg – like Guab, but with a win and a save
• RHP B Parker – not this year and lit up
• RHP B Schlitter – not the year and OK

If you based it on just Spring Training, which is both dumb and what will probably happen, it’s clearly Parisi, Guab and Berg as the last three, with Stevens and Samardzija on the perphiary. But there’s still plenty of innings to change things.

Stats:

AHL: 34 GP, 28 Goals, 6 Assists (34 points), 37 PIM, +24
NHL: 45 GP, 34 Goals, 14 Assists (48 points), 34 PIM, +20

Notes

• Played all 81 games myself (missed 1 game due to promotion)
• The (18 year old) player rating started at 74, and has only moved up thru equipment bonuses. There’s no way I should’ve scored 62 goals and 82 points with a 74 guy. Need to bump up difficulty (at Pro now) …may wait until after playoffs
• Ended regular season with 4th most points and 1st in goals on Dallas, despite playing 40 less games. Not coincidentally, took twice as many shots than anyone else, again despite playing 40 fewer games. I’m a black hole and would need to fix this if I ever played a team game online.
• Not coincidentally, the only Season Expectation I missed was assists (supposed to have gotten 28)
• Something between 15-20 of those goals were empty net goals at end of the games.
• Led the NHL in goals by rookie, but finished 17 points out of first place
• When promoted to Dallas on a permanent basis, they were around 13th in Western Conference. They’ll go into the playoffs as the #1 seed. Again, difficulty needs to be slightly adjusted…

Still can’t make a shootout goal to save my life. At least that’s not a big deal in the playoffs!