reminder: I’ll be hosting a chat and posting live results later tonight. Chat starts around 8:30 pm CT.
All time record (6 known matches)
Negro Casas: 2 wins
Blue Panther: 1 win
draws: 3 – a double disqualification, a time limit draw, and one other draw
Blue Panther vs Negro Casas in a hair match is only happening tonight because it did not happen in December and because the Shocker/Blue Panther vs Negro Casas/Felino hair match did not happen in December. CMLL was strongly considering both matches before deciding to wait for better business for the bigger match, but they got close enough to running those alternates that they surely had a finish in mind. If they had done the tag match, Blue Panther & Shocker were certainty winning, and that’s the strongest reason I believe Blue Panther will win tonight. CMLL was ready to have Negro Casas lose his hair, and Negro Casas looked ready to lose his hair.
The case for Negro Casas is he hasn’t won one of these in a while and the whole Casas family has been losing a lot. I don’t have a good way to dismiss those points. My best reasoning is the Casas family seems unconcerned (and maybe content) with losing these matches, and the tecnico side is much weaker than the rudo side and could use any victory they get. It’s just Atlantis and Panther as “veteran” top tecnicos right now, and Panther’s probably not a top guy if he he’s bald after this.
Recent Arena Mexico major shows
2011.12.16: Blue Panther DQ Felino [hair]
2011.09.30: Rey Bucanero loses cage match [hair]
2011.06.17: La Mascara b Averno [mask]
2011.03.18: Terrible & Texano b Maximo & Super Porky [hair]
2010.12.03: Rey Bucanero b Mr. Aguila [hair]
Negro Casas vs Blue Panther is different from those matches in that it’s not a younger star(s) getting a meaingful win to cement them at a high level, and it’s not the middle part of a longer storyline. Bucanero vs Mr. Aguila is the closest comparision, but that’s more a matter of circumstance; the intention was always to do Rey Bucanero vs Charly Manson as a follow up, only Charly Manson decided he’d rather be in AAA. That also makes this harder to figure – there’s no (teased or real) next step requiring someone to win.
The Bucanero/Aguila show, which also had a minis mask match and appearances from Latin Lover & Mistico, drew 8,300 fans. The Invasion idea was no longer a draw by the point and Negro Casas & Blue Panther are bigger stars, but it was a stronger overall moment in CMLL business than it is now. My guess is CMLL will draw around that number for tonight’s show, and that would be a very good outcome for 2012 CMLL. One single show does not determine everything when they’re you are running three shows a week every week, but it’d show CMLL is still able of strongly building up a match when they put their minds to it, and this has definitely been the strongest built match since Mascara vs Averno.
The rest of the show, including the tournament, is largely irrelevant. Atlantis & Mascara Dorada won the same tournament last year, received trophies, and the whole thing went without mention or reference for the following 11 months. I suspect Rush & Terrible will win this year, to break Atlantis’ streak, to continue the build up for those two, and to balance out the outcome for next Tuesday’s TRT/Atlantida recap. Diamante Azul’s performance and his reception is more important than the outcome, though it’d nice to be a win. CMLL rarely does tecnico/tecnico title matches, so Ayumi defeating Marcela is an easy substitute to confirm her win and move her on to whatever’s she’s up to while in. (Which might not be much, since Ayumi defending the title on the next REINA show seems likely.)
There are rumors of someone returning, be it Alex Koslov, someone from AAA, or someone from oblivion, but I’m not sure anyone should really want that spot. Black Warrior made the surprise return last year, and look how that one worked out! There’s a decent shot CMLL may run a larger than average show on 03/30 to annoy Hijo del Santo, so perhaps they’ll start something for that show. Most likely, the biggest angle developments happening tonight will be happening over in Toluca.