figuring out the date for this year’s TripleMania

AAA has a big show coming up soon. How soon? AAA won’t say. This year’s TripleMania date has been kept quiet, been treated as a top secret, which is a bizarre way to build up to the biggest show of the year. This is usually a show AAA tries to break records with, but this year it’s a show they don’t want to advertise. Perhaps it’ll finally be announced tomorrow on AAA’s TV show, but maybe we can figure it out on our own first.

Let’s start of with some rules

• TripleMania can’t be happening in the next few weeks. They’ve waited too long to announce the show, but they’re not insane. It’s not happening tomorrow. It’s not happening the day after tomorrow. It can’t be happening until some time after the UK tour (07/11). AAA has TV tapings up to the 10th, so I’m pretty sure TripleMania would’ve been brought up by now.
• TripleMania is likely happening in July or August. It’s always possible they could sneak in to early September, but they start running into a short turn around before Heroes Inmortales (middle of October) the longer they stretch this out and they run into competition. CMLL may have it’s own problems with their big show of the year, but it wouldn’t be optimum for AAA to run the same weekend, or even the weekend prior. This show can’t really be later than 09/06.
• TripleMania is not on a weekday and probably a Sunday. This isn’t a hard and fast rule, but TripleMania has been on Sundays four of the last five years, and most every AAA big show is on a Sunday.

Let’s just go with Sundays while acknowledging Saturdays could still be possible.  (It’d be harsh to send people back on the road the next day after a long night for TripleMania anyway; AAA probably needs both Saturday and Sunday clear regardless of which day the show is run.) Here’s the Sundays left

July 19
July 26
August 2
August 9
August 16
August 23
August 30
September 6

AAA has announced a house show on the 19th with too many people that can’t miss TripleMania. Same thing on the 26th; it’s a little less star power, but they wouldn’t have OKed that card if they might need those guys.  And today, they added a show in Juarez on 08/02 with Myzteziz and Alberto is booked on an indy show on 08/02, so that’s a safe no. Alberto & Rey are booked in Bolivia on August 15th & 16th, cross those off. (At least seven different wrestlers who’d be on TripleMania have been announced for the Battle of of Los Angeles from 08/28-08/30, so that’s a no. CHIKARA King of Trios is on September 4, 5, 6; while Fenix, Aerostar and Drago could be eliminated early and sent home, AAA would probably want them in Mexico for most of the weekend if they were booked on the show. How’s this looking?

August 9
August 23

August 23rd turns out to be the same day as SummerSlam. That’d normally be easy enough to scratch that date off too but we just saw what happened with Money in the Bank and Verano de Escandalo. And I’ve got nothing to cross off August 9th. I think that’s as far as we can go, but it’s pretty far: if TripleMania is on a Sunday, it’s either August 9th or August 23rd. 

Speculating has been pointing towards an early August date and I’d bet on August 9th if I had to choose between the two because of that WWE conflict, but I don’t any hard proof to cite one or the other.

(Did I miss a booking? It’s strangely hard to track down upcoming Alberto & Rey dates, so maybe there’s more conflicts out there. There’s a 50/50 chance someone’s going to immediately knock off one of those dates after I post this, and I’ll update if that happens.)

This is the other thing: there’s got to be a big hold up to not announce the date. If it’s that August 9th date, we’re talking about it being six weekends away: you’d abosultely want to start promoting a card that close. Even if it’s August 23rd, that only 8 weeks for a card normally hoping to pull in 20,000 (including a far chunk of people who will be traveling in.) It’s obviously a determent to the whole thing to hold off announcing the show at this point, so there’s got to be an even bigger reason not to say anything. Maybe they’re still negotiating with a big name to come in, maybe they’re not sure they’ve got a card to run Arena Ciudad de Mexico are looking for dates on other buildings. There’s something going on, and that’s an even bigger mystery than the date.