Who is the best luchador in CMLL? A question that everyone wonders about, except maybe CMLL. It’s fun to do rankings to determine the top guy, but you know what’s even more fun that? Math. Record was doing a crazy intrict system to rate US and Mexico wrestlers based on a whole bunch of different criteras, but didn’t get to finish out it’s planned year of tracking. I’m looking for something a bit simplier.
To that aim, I’ve come up with CMLL rankings based on the ELO rating system, developed for ranking chess players. Chess and lucha libre have so much in common (the chess has the little piece shaped as a horse, CMLL has Bronco, both move oddly), it just seemed like a natural choice.
(I later found out MookieGhana had done the same bit.)
– only matches in the last two years are counted. Statue of limitations, really.
– only singles matches count. This is trying to mimic reality (and it was easiest.)
– all singles matches count the same. Blue Panther vs Negro Casas counts exactly as much as a rookie opening match in GDL. This turns out to be hilarious.
– only matches in Mexico, Coliseo, Puebla, and Guadalajara count. Again, trying to mimic reality.
– only matches with results count, which leaves out some GDL stuff I haven’t figured out.
– Draws are half wins.
The part I barely understand
Everyone starts at 1200. I’ve settled on a K-Factor of 50, which the most points you can pick up in a win, but only if you’re the very worst and they’re the very best. This rating system means you gain a lot by beating someone very ahead of you, and little by losing to someone already close to you. 50 is a much larger swing than you’d find in Chess, or what Mookie used in his survey, but CMLL singles matches are generally rare and important things.
What do we come up with?
(as of May 10th)
Dragón Rojo Jr.: 1341
Shigeo Okumura: 1300
Leo (GDL): 1296
Princesa Blanca: 1292
Volador Jr.: 1288
Máscara Dorada: 1278
Pequeño Olímpico: 1273
La Sombra: 1272
La Máscara: 1268
CMLL’s problems in a nutshell: Mistico is still the best, and he hasn’t been here in 16 months. Otherwise, this is a more intersting set of results than the year end win/loss tables I do, with more of a rudo/tecnico mix. Rudos tend to lose 2/3rds of the match overall, but they do better in singles blow offs to feuds. Tecnicos do especially well in opening card rookies matches, which is how Tondar(!) finishes six. I thought those who have been in single match heavy situations (tournaments, Forjando de un Idolo) might finish higher, but that doens’t seem to be the case. Okumura has not lost a singles match in two years (he’s won four) and would be higher if I could bring myself to enter the Valiente result.
On the other side, the bottom 10:
Niebla Roja: 1114
Princesa Maya: 1114
Puma King: 1096
In Memoriam: 1065
Psicosis II: 1006
Psicosis’ number is amazing. It takes some great effort to be 59 points away from the next closest person under the system. That’s what happens when you’re 0-12 in singles matches. The first one was May 10th 2 years ago, so he’s better if I reran it now, because some of those are cleared off. No chance of him actually winning something. In related news, no one pays to see the Invasors. Mephisto is good enough to be in title match, not good enough to win them. Puma’s poor performance in tournaments hurts him. Lots of GDL novato rudos. Guerrero Maya almost made this list, which caught me off guard. I guess he’s a trios specialist!
One more try: let’s throw out Guadalajara & Puebla because they don’t actually count either. (Sorry, Porra Fresa & Fuego en el Ring.) What does it look like now?
Dragón Rojo Jr.: 1354 La Sombra: 1344
La Máscara: 1317
Último Guerrero: 1269
(Mistico falls to 11)
Dragon Rojo is random, but that’s what winning single elimination tournaments will do for you. Polvora’s helped by that as well. Virus is just great.
Loco Max: 1134
Niebla Roja: 1130
Bam Bam: 1126
Princesa Sugheit: 1126
Puma King: 1125
Psicosis II: 1099
Psicosis, still poor. Rey Cometa actually tied with Loco Max, but I left him off.
If I were to do this again, and do it a bit seriously, I’d obviously have to change the valuation for wins. All wins are not created equal, especially the wins that come in 3 minutes in the quartefinals of a soon to be forgetton tournament. I do think this might be amusing as a something to keep track of monthly, though it seems mostly just confirm what we already know.