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NJPW SJ ’09 06/11

Jun
11
Block A
Name              1st   2nd   Adv   Avg  Mode
Tiger Mask (6)  91.9%  0.0% 91.9%  7.84     8 Black Tiger (13)
Milano (6)      54.8%  0.0% 54.8%  7.10     8 Aoki (13)
Jado (6)        54.0%  0.0% 54.0%  7.08     8 Aoki (12)
AKIRA (6)       50.0%  0.0% 50.0%  7.00     8 Devitt (12)
Devitt (6)      49.9%  0.0% 49.9%  7.00     6 AKIRA (12)
Aoki (4)        21.3%  0.0% 21.3%  5.82     6 Jado (12) Milano (13)
Black Tiger (0)  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.16     0 Tiger Mask (13)

Block B
Name              1st   2nd   Adv   Avg  Mode
Kikuchi (6)     53.7% 10.6% 64.3%  7.07     8 Liger (12)
Taguchi (6)     50.9%  5.3% 56.3%  7.02     8 Kanemoto (13)
Kanemoto (6)    49.0%  5.3% 54.3%  6.98     6 Taguchi (13)
Ibushi (4)      27.7% 10.6% 38.3%  6.11     6 Liger (13) Yamato (12)
Liger (4)       22.8% 10.6% 33.4%  5.92     6 Kikuchi (12) Ibushi (13)
Yamato (4)       0.0% 10.6% 10.6%  4.89     4 Ibushi (12)
Taichi (4)       0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  4.00     4

No 2nd place in Block A = all scenarios have at least 2 people tied for first. Plenty with more than 2, obviously.

tomorrow:

Aoki vs Jado: loser is eliminated
AKIRA vs Devitt: playoff game – winner advances to the big tie, loser is done.

Yamato vs Ibushi: Winner double their chances of making.
Kikiuchi vs Liger: Kikuchi clinches a share of first with a win and Liger would be eliminated. The other way produces no certainties.

NJPW Super J ’09 reloaded

Jun
10

I fixed this, but didn’t post it. Since I’m waiting for a midnight delivery – it’s on the up and up, I swear – might as well paste this and then go incoherent.

Block A
Name              1st   2nd   Adv   Avg  Mode
Tiger Mask (6)  83.3% 14.1% 97.4%  9.08    10 Jado (11) Black Tiger (13)
Milano (6)      56.5% 27.5% 84.0%  8.39     8 Aoki (13) AKIRA (11)
Devitt (6)      15.4% 28.3% 43.7%  7.09     8 AKIRA (12)
Aoki (4)         9.0% 11.8% 20.8%  5.80     6 Jado (12) Milano (13)
Jado (4)        13.0%  7.2% 20.2%  5.80     6 Tiger Mask (11) Aoki (12)
AKIRA (4)        7.8% 10.3% 18.2%  5.72     6 Devitt (12) Milano (11)
Black Tiger (0)  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.13     0 Tiger Mask (13)

Block B
Name              1st   2nd   Adv   Avg  Mode
Taguchi (6)     59.8% 30.2% 90.0%  8.57     8 Kanemoto (13) Taichi (11)
Kanemoto (6)    58.1% 30.3% 88.4%  8.49     8 Taguchi (13) Yamato (11)
Kikuchi (6)     12.8% 43.1% 55.9%  7.08     8 Liger (12)
Ibushi (4)       7.6% 27.3% 34.9%  6.33     6 Liger (13) Yamato (12)
Liger (4)        5.2% 20.0% 25.2%  5.93     6 Kikuchi (12) Ibushi (13)
Yamato (2)       0.0%  1.3%  1.3%  3.17     2 Kanemoto (11) Ibushi (12)
Taichi (2)       0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  2.43     2 Taguchi (11)

Now ties really are NOT broken, so the Adv column should be read more as “still alive after the 13th”.And the points are on there. But no other structural changes and I don’t know if I’ll bother with anything else.

With all this together, chances more obviously follow directly by points and matches left, but you do get a sense in how locked some are already.

Couldn’t decide how to handle situations where multiple tied for first, but opted to give everyone a first and no one a second.

It’d be fun to graph the Adv number, day by day, to see which match turned out to be the turning point, and I’ve actually thought about how I’d need to rework to code make that work (wouldn’t be THAT hard, just would be work), but I don’t suppose I’ll have that sort of time/interest. FF7+Uncharted2 Beta+Burnout Expansion Pack should mean a full day of PS3 joy.

And there’s the truck. My time here is done!

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NJPW SJ ’09 (06/09)

Jun
09

Haven’t had any time to work on this since, and may or may not the next 24 hours. Plenty of other stuff to do, and I love to leave projects half finished. Though I did spend 20 minutes laying in bed thinking of a better way to compute chances of winning (3/4 your win percentage + 1/4 previous opponents win percentage to work strength of schedule in.) Not implemented here, tho’.

Come to think of it, I think ties ARE broken the way I did it. Not using win percentage, everyone in the tie just gets a share of the place – so if there are two in first place, they each get a half a 1st, and each get a half of 2nd. If there’s thirds, they get thirds. So Advance probably isn’t as accurate as I want, because I’d prefer it counts ties and it’s just adding 1st and 2nd here. That, maybe I’ll fix, because it’s too grievous.

This makes no sense to anyone and for that I am glad.

Follow along with results here – really need to add current points here to make it possible to follow along. Really need a new template that doesn’t force all of this to scroll weirdly.

Block A
Name              1st     2nd     Adv     Avg    Mode
Tiger Mask      54.5%   26.7%   81.2%    9.08      10 Jado (11) Black Tiger (13)
Milano          32.1%   31.1%   63.2%    8.41       8 Aoki (13) AKIRA (11)
Prince Devitt    4.6%   19.3%   23.9%    7.11       8 AKIRA (12)
Jado             3.8%    6.9%   10.7%    5.80       6 Tiger Mask (11) Aoki (12)
Aoki             2.6%    7.7%   10.3%    5.79       6 Jado (12) Milano (13)
AKIRA            2.4%    8.3%   10.7%    5.70       6 Prince Devitt (12) Milano (11)
Black Tiger      0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.12       0 Tiger Mask (13)

Block B
Name              1st     2nd     Adv     Avg    Mode
Taguchi         46.9%   22.2%   69.1%    8.57       8 Kanemoto (13) Taichi (11)
Kanemoto        44.4%   22.6%   67.0%    8.49       8 Taguchi (13) Yamato (11)
Kikuchi          4.1%   27.0%   31.1%    7.08       8 Liger (12)
Ibushi           2.4%   14.7%   17.1%    6.31       6 Liger (13) Yamato (12)
Liger            2.2%   13.3%   15.5%    5.94       6 Kikuchi (12) Ibushi (13)
Yamato           0.0%    0.3%    0.3%    3.17       2 Kanemoto (11) Ibushi (12)
Taichi           0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    2.43       2 Taguchi (11)

Could use a way to track changes, but really too late now. Devitt doesn’t improve much for winning, because the projections were presuming he’d almost certainly beat Black Tiger (who’s clearly going to end up beating Tiger Mask, if it matters at all) while Milano shoots up because he and Jado were a pick ’em.

Taguchi/Kikuchi is really the pivotal match of the day – Taguchi surges to first, his chance of advancing increase by a third, while Kikuchi is cut in half. Kikuchi isn’t done yet, but if Taguchi & Kanemoto win their matches on the 11th (which they should), they’d be better off agreeing to a draw than actually fighting. Not much Fighting Spirit in that, I guess.

I’m intrigued by Yamato going from .2 to .3! What’s the hail mary situation that’s coming up 1 out of every 333 times? Hmmm:

– Yamato wins twice gets him to 6 points, so only one other can be above six points
– Ibushi beats Liger to get to 6
– Liger beats Kikuchi to get to 6 – Kikuchi is also at 6
– Kanemoto beats Taguchi to get 8
– and Taichi also beats Taguchi – Taichi gets 4, not that it matters.

It’d be
Kanemoto 8
Liger 6
Taguchi 6
Kikiuchi 6
Yamato 6
Ibushi 6
Taichi 4

That’s 42 points, so it checks out. You could probably reverse the Taguchi/Taichi finish if Taguchi went on to beat Kanemoto, for something like this:

Taguchi 10
Kanemoto 6
Liger 6
Kikiuchi 6
Yamato 6
Ibushi 6
Taichi 2

Anyway, as anyone could’ve figured out a lot simplier, Yamato/Kanemoto is an Yamato elimination game. And so is Jado/Tiger Mask.

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NJPW Super Juniors Playoff Odds Report (06/08)

Jun
08

Have I mentioned lately that I like tournaments? Still do. Still like figuring them out. Still like doing php programs to figure them out Nate Silver style when I’ve got a little too much boredom.

This is as 0f NJPW Super Junior’s 06/08/09 matches, so it’s good for like 3 more hours.

Block A
Name              1st     2nd     Adv     Avg    Mode
Tiger Mask      53.6%   24.1%   77.7%    8.92      10 Jado (11) Black Tiger (13)
Milano          17.5%   22.7%   40.2%    7.31       8 Jado (09) Aoki (13) AKIRA (11)
Jado            19.6%   16.0%   35.6%    7.08       8 Tiger Mask (11) Milano (09) Aoki (12)
Prince Devitt    3.7%   18.3%   22.0%    6.81       6 AKIRA (12) Black Tiger (09)
AKIRA            2.6%   10.8%   13.4%    5.86       6 Prince Devitt (12) Milano (11)
Aoki             2.9%    8.2%   11.0%    5.70       6 Jado (12) Milano (13)
Black Tiger      0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.32       0 Tiger Mask (13) Prince Devitt (09)

Block B
Name              1st     2nd     Adv     Avg    Mode
Kanemoto        40.3%   28.8%   69.1%    8.56       8 Taguchi (13) Yamato (11)
Kikuchi         31.7%   29.4%   61.1%    8.26       8 Liger (12) Taguchi (09)
Taguchi         23.0%   19.3%   42.3%    7.44       8 Kikuchi (09) Kanemoto (13) Taichi (11)
Ibushi           2.4%   12.5%   14.8%    6.31       6 Liger (13) Yamato (12)
Liger            2.7%    9.8%   12.5%    5.80       6 Kikuchi (12) Ibushi (13)
Yamato           0.0%    0.2%    0.2%    3.19       2 Kanemoto (11) Ibushi (12)
Taichi           0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    2.45       2 Taguchi (11)

based on 10,000 spins, with chances of winning future matches based on winning percentage so far, except:
– min win% is 5% (so currently winless Black Tiger does get a win at times)
– Every future match has a 5% chance of being the 1st draw, and that percentage gets cut in half on every draw, so multiple draws are reduced in chance
– 5% win percent bonus for NJPW wrestlers when facing outsiders.

‘mode’ is the final point number the wrestler most often reached. Ties are NOT broken. Haven’t really looked to see how they’re broken this year (and usually it’s never clear to me until it’s over.)

The big success here, besides killing time that could’ve been spent in a productive manner, is I wrote it all in a way that it could be used for any other tournament. There’s definite refinements I could do to make it more easily swappable, but the constants, the participants, and the matches are all easy to get to.

Ideas I’ve already had about improving this
– obviously, a better method of forecasting expected win percentage. Sadly lacking point differential, or a being able to match every wrestler in history to compare to usual paths. Probably would’ve done some guessed Win% predictions based on expected final rankings (and or Adam/Mike predictions depending on my level of manic at that moment), and stepped down their influence so they had no affect after halfway (where everyone is already, how nice.)
– let user select outcome of future matches before running sim (“if Devitt can beat Jado, what’s his chance of advance?”)
– mode percentage (“how often does the most often number come up.”)

I may actually have things to do tommorrow (or things I could’ve done today), so maybe I’ll never think about it again. Who can say.

It’d be cool if I could do this sort of thing for lucha, but AAA has a match it’s billing as the most important in it’s history on Saturday, and I’m not sure they’ve actually gotten around to explaining (or even figuring out) the rules to it yet. Meanwhile, doing a run of league format singles matches to determine a universal champion would give the other guys big main events for a couple months (and easy occasional big main events – what’s drawing better Friday, Shocker vs Dos, or Mistico vs Ultimo or Negro in a real three fall main event?), so they’re instead choosing to crown a champ in their lamest fashion possible.

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Day 12: 06/16

Jun
16

chart

Called it.
Inoue over Liger, I reckon.

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Day 11: 06/14

Jun
14

chart here
Those bored with this feature (which is everyone but me) will note there’s only 1 day to go.

(more…)

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Day 10: 06/10

Jun
10
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Day 9: 06/09

Jun
09
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Day 8: 06/08

Jun
08

06-08
A: Jushin Liger [4 max 10] W Fuego [2] (Fuego’s done)
B: Gedo [4 max 8] W GENTARO [2 max 6] (Gedo surges into 5th! He’s techincally no worse than Kaneomto or BT4, but I wouldn’t bet on it)

chart

Next: 06/09
A: Jushin Liger vs Sangre Azteca (Liger continues rolling)
A: Ryusuke Taguchi vs Jado (theoritical eliminaion match; Taguchi should win)
B: Wataru Inoue vs Hirooki Goto (Inoue may be able to advance without this match, but probably shouldn’t attempt such a thing)
B: Koji Kameoto vs Gedo (definite elimination match; Kanemoto should win)

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Day 7: 06/07

Jun
07

chart

Day 1 of 4 straight days! We’ll have be down to nitty gritty after this stretch

A: Samurai [7, max 11] b Taguchi [6, max 10]
I think Ryu’s in some major trouble now. If you believe Minoru’s making a run, and Liger’s making a run, Taguchi had to stay a good distance ahead of them. He’s still got the match versus Jado, and that’s a must win, but I’m not confident 8 will be enough in this bracket.

7 for sure won’t, but with Minoru and Liger left, Samurai’s going to have derail one more wrestler. This win keeps him in it.

B: Gedo b Black Tiger IV
Bad, bad loss for BT4, pretty much a death blow. He’ll have to sweep Kanemoto and Inoue and I think that’s beyond him at this point. His next match in the group isn’t till the 14th, and, by that point, it may be a win or go home match.

B: GENTARO b Inoue
Like I said, one Inoue could afford to lose – perhaps he knew that as well, and let down here? If we non-kayfabe it for a moment, I believe this is a sign Inoue ain’t winning it all; everyone’s going to lose in this tournament, but wouldn’t you have the eventually winner of the tournament lose to someone he can have a program with in a few months, as opposed to an indy outsider? I may be way off here, but I just got a feeling after this result that getting out of the first round might be it for Inoue.

B: Tiger Mask IV b Kanemoto
Nearly as bad loss for Kanemoto as it was for BT4, except he’s got an easier road to 8; Gedo (unless he’s coming on strong) and BT4 (who’s not.) Scheduling seems to indicate it won’t matter; he’s not in action on the last day, and BT4 is.

I think Block B is heading towards something like

06/16
Gedo, Goto, Gentaro up the track
Kanemoto 6
BT4 6 vs Inoue
Inoue 8 vs BT4 (match is it’s own tiebreaker)
TM4 8 vs Gedo

but I’m not 100% sure.

2006-06-08
Gedo TBD GENTARO (RUMBLE FOR FIFTH)
Jushin Liger TBD Fuego (this time for sure)

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