Locks That We Knew Going Into Camp and I Really Can Stop Mentioning,

01 SS Theriot
02 RF The Fuk
03 1B D Lee
04 3B A Ram
05 CF Byrd
06 LF Soriano
07 CA Soto
08 2B Fontenot

09 SP Dempster
10 SP Z
11 SP Wells – not that you would’ve known it today.

12 CL Marmol
13 RP Grabow

14 ?P Marshall – the position is another argument…
15 ?P Gorz – …and no one seems to have the first clue…
16 ?P Silva – …on even who’s leading here…

17 CA Hill
18 2B Baker

And I think that’s it, at least coming in. There’s three more who had/have hopes of being included

possible opening day Disabled List!

DL SP Ted Lilly – this one keeps bouncing back and forth like a metronome. Even best case, it makes since for him to start on the DL and get the extra warmup starts, since they may only need four starters anyway.

19 PH Xavier Nady – I don’t like the idea of an OF who can’t throw until June; doesn’t really work at most any position, but since the idea here was to platoon him with Fukudome, that’s not very helpful. I’d start him on the DL until he can at least do something, but Lou brushed off that idea.

DL RP Angel Guzman – :( At least he got one good season. I’ll be shocked to ever see him pitch in the ML again.

Up four grabs

That still leaves 6 spots, and four of those are in the bullpen. One of those jobs is already accounted for:

20 RP Esmalin Caridad – already know how this one plays out. He’s got a live arm, so Lou will be thrilled to give him a shot. He’s got a walking problem, so Lou will bury him deep in the pen. This is your anointed setup man!

I’ll get back to pitching in a couple spots, but the bench is easier to finish out

21 OF (who can back up all three) – this was clearly supposed to be Sam Fuld coming into the season, but he might have had it snaked from him. Tyler Colvin does not have the positionally flexibility (he’s really more of a corner guy) but has been killing the ball and has that 1st round draft pick tag. James Adduci has hit a little less, but still really good and offers more defense. Colvin’s thought of a prospect (though I doubt he’ll be much more than he is at this point), but Adduci isn’t really and it’s not as though the Cubs would be risking a great upside by having him sit on the bench 6 days out of 7. No idea how this is turning out.

22 ?? – This spot is supposed to be backup shortstop, which means it’d be Andres Blanco, but he’s been hurt a week. It was never going to be Starlin Castro…but now it seems like it actually may be some other position entirely.

Bringing in Chad Tracy and Kevin Millar on NRIs never made much since, because there really wasn’t going to be a spot for them on the 25. That math changes if Fontenot can actually play a little SS – there’s no need for the fourth guy, and there’s room for an extra 1B/3B type. (As I’ve pointed out too many times, this is why they shouldn’t have bothered to keep Fontenot, but he’s hitting good so I should lay off.) If this spot exists, it looks like it’s Millar over Tracy, with Hoffpauir and LeHair trailing far behind. I don’t know that any of them will actually hit when the calendar turns to April, but the bench could use one more hitter so it’s worth trying.

The thing is, Fontenot has played all of four innings of SS. Maybe he’s been putting in a lot of work on the back fields, or maybe that was enough for Lou, but I’m not so convinced this plan is actually happening.

And all of that was easier than the last three bullpen spots.

23 + 24 + 25 RP (or maybe starter?)

Gorz and Marshall probably won’t make the rotation, or at least won’t be there for long, so there’s no specific need for a LHP over a RHP. Past that? Who knows. Everyone left who’s pitched, minus those not on the 40 man roster, and those cut already

• RHP M Parisi – Rule 5 pick, seemed to be here as a starter not at all (and definitely won’t be hid like Patton last year); has been good in short stints
• RHP J Samardzija – coming in, the idea seemed to be start in ML or AAA with no chance of bullpen; does Guzman’s injury change that? Has been hit hard and not looked good.
• LHP J Gaub – on the fringe of the bullpen coming in, has pitched good
• RHP M Mateo – not this year and lit up
• RHP J Stevens – probably had a spot at the start, but has been hit hard, who knows
• RHP J Berg – like Guab, but with a win and a save
• RHP B Parker – not this year and lit up
• RHP B Schlitter – not the year and OK

If you based it on just Spring Training, which is both dumb and what will probably happen, it’s clearly Parisi, Guab and Berg as the last three, with Stevens and Samardzija on the perphiary. But there’s still plenty of innings to change things.

Cubs trade IF Aaron Miles & DH Jake Fox (and $1 million) to the A’s for RP Jeff Gray, ?P Ronny Morla, ?? Matt Spencer.

and so Chicago Cubs General Manager Jim Hendry is halfway done in undoing the bad moves by last year’s bad Cubs General Manger Jim…oh, right.

If the prospects ever turn into anything, that’d be neat and all, but this is really giving up Jake Fox to get Aaron Miles off his hand. And I guess THAT works if you subscribe to the beliefs the Cubs clearly do:

• Aaron Miles had no future on this team and was just going to eat up a roster spot until they got up the nerve to cut him and eat the rest of the contract
• Jake Fox had no future on this team because all the corner positions are taken and he’s not never going to be even an an OK defender anyway

I agree with the first point. The Cubs were clearly screwing with roster rules last year, sending Aaron Miles on as long as possible rehab stints, because they didn’t want him to take a spot on the 25 man roster. This saves the Cubs the spot in 2010, and it’s nice they can recoup $1.7 mil of a bad investment.

Can’t be emphasized enough – EVERYONE knew the Aaron Miles deal was bad the moment it was announced. The Bradley did was a dare, where you had people on both sides – those saying he’d hit, and those saying he’d crack. (I lost that one.) Miles had a disappointing season by his standards and will probably rebound, but having to do this deal to get rid of him is why it was a bad idea to give him two years in the first place.

Fox, I don’t buy into. The Cubs are going to be short on power unless Alfonso rebounds in a big way. Soriano may have entered the part of his career where he’s only going to miss 20-30 games every  year. Plus, until the Cubs actually sign someone to be a centerfielder, they could’ve still played Kosuke there and Fox in right from time to time. I understand a price had to be paid to get Miles off the Cubs hands – and they got a pretty good price for him – but the team is definitely worse of now than it was before the trade.

If they can turn the saved money into something useful, maybe this can be redeemed a little bit. But I suspect it’ll go to a veteran reliever who’s actually not that good.

I was actually happier with this trade before I started considering it. Getting rid of Aaron Miles for not full price is great, but they shouldn’t have been in that spot to start with. At least this is done, and Hendry can spend next week finalizing his other mistake.

Pretty sure this trade is going to be thrown back in Hendry’s face should he be in any trouble next year. Fox will hit 20+ if given regular DH time and it’ll be really easy to spin this against him. He knows it, too, which is why he’s already trying to make the case that he wouldn’t have the same chances with the Cubs.

Jeff Gray is a fastball strikeout (though not impressive so) reliever who will compete with a half dozen other guys for a spot in the bullpen. The other guys seem to be such long shots, they’re not worth thinking about (except hoping later we’re all dumb for not thinking about them at the time.)

- 7 days and running dedicated to commentary on Sammy Sosa’s face without, I dunno, having someone find him and take another picture.

- Phil Rogers writing a column about how little budget room the Cubs have, then writing about how the Cubs must pick up Curtis Granderson’s 3/$24 salary ASAP.

This is why they are what they are. And by that, I mean the Cubs, who race into situations like that without thinking long term, and all the sudden you’ve got a slumping DH playing left field for 5 more years.

I’m mixed on Granderson. I think he had the fortune to sign a contract at the exact best moment for him, and someone is going to be stuck paying for that good year for the next three. If he was in some nice spot in between his really good 2008 and eh 2009, I think he’d a fine pick up, but there’s no guarantee. FanGraphs already has the Bill Jamies projections for next year, which tend to be a lot closer 2008, but my worry is another number on that page – 13% of his outs were on infield fly balls. Seems like a guy who was trying to hit for more power, and ending up too far underneath balls.

Maybe he can correct that in an easier park to hit. And the league adjustment will certainly help. Just not so certain that I want to give up the whole farm system.

He’s definitely a better idea than giving a multi-year deal to Marlon Byrd, which seems like the current rumor. You’d think the Cubs would learn not to take hitters from Texas. The 479 slugging is not going to work out well outside that park, and the 329 on base will. He’s already the wrong side of 30, and they’d be paying for decling years. A one year deal for a reasonable price might work, but Byrd’s the sort of fungible player you don’t sign long term, because you don’t want to be stuck with him if a better option comes along (or he suddenly becomes a worse option.)

I think Mike Cameron is every single team’s back up choice, so he’s going to end up getting a lot better deal than casual people expect. Maybe it’ll secretly be the year people pay for defense.

Kinda cool that the Burrell deal is the closest, having called it a while back. I stil think it’s the best the Cubs can do – they’re going to lose any deal they make for him, because they’ll be giving up the better player. You’ve just got pick the best bounce back candidate.

Roster note few have picked up on: Mike Fontenot being declared a Super Two player means he’s eligible for a big pay raise thru arbitration unless the Cubs non-tendered him. So, he’ll be cut, and the Cubs keep Aaron Miles around as a backup instead of eating his contract this year.

In my mind, the current opening day 25 looks like

CA Soto
1B D Lee
2B ???? (let’s say Baker)
SS Theriot
3B A Ram
LF Soriano
CF ???? (someone not on the roster)
RF Fukudome

SP Zambrano
SP Dempster
SP Wells
SP Gorz
SP yo-yo Marshall or Samardzija?

CA Hill
IF Miles
OF Hoffpauir??
OF Fuld?? or Colvin? or Johsnon??
IF Blanco or ???

RP Stevens?
RP Marshall or Samardzija
RP Caridad
RP Grabow
RP Guzman
CL Marmol

DL Lilly – he’s not late if he starts on May 1st. Bet on it.

A lot of question marks. Doesn’t really seem like it’s a 90 win team there.

This might be a good place for baseball comments.

There were some quotes in the newspaper interviews – all of which were presented as exclusive interviews done beforehand, but sure seem like the same one – that I thought were particularly lighting.

Payroll: It’s going to be just a little higher than last year, just over $140mil. The Cubs are currently committed to $120 (Cot’s Baseball contracts), before counting all the arbitration eligible guys. There’s no bail out for Bradley coming.

Not to depress you, but it doesn’t look much better for 2011. Only $96mil committed, but that doesn’t include Lee or Lilly, both of which the Cubs would want to keep and may even extend this off season.

How to build a team; Ricketts noted repeatedly that the Cubs spent the 3rd most on payroll, so money isn’t the issue. Instead, he said “The way you consistently make the playoffs is to have the right player-development process, to have the right guys drafting the right talented kids and the right coaches and scouts working together to see them be productive at the major-league level.”

If this is actually the way they go, and they start pouring more money in to the draft and the minor league system, the franchise is a lot better off.

Jim Hendry has a free roll this year, but Ricketts was very clear that they’d reevaluate things after the system. Two straight playoffs appearances buys you some time, but maybe not more than that.

the Triangle building!: Did this talk in 2005? Maybe before? And how many sketches have we seen already? Lost track of all this, except for the part where I’m completely tired of hearing about it. Which is OK, because I think there’s actually going to be some thing building in that lot next year. The overall plan seems to improve the stadium, but try to generate more revenue outside of it.

I wish I could find the quote for this one, just to have it later when it becomes necessary to have proof that they actually said it, but I believe what I read was the Cubs would work on a plan over the next year, and build in the ‘11-12 off season. I wish it could happen sooner, or that stuff like moving offices out of the stadium to clear more room for the players could happen right away, but I think I’ll settle for having some progress.

Items that aren’t happening

Naming rights to the stadium were pretty definitely shot down. As were other big ideas people had been dreaming up – no moving for a year to redo the stadium, no jumbotron on a rooftop. They’re going to keep Wrigley as it, just make it look more presentable.

The one notable thing not mentioned: the stake in Comcast Sports Net. That whole deal has seemed wrong from the start; it makes everyone feel good to split that equally when it was created, but it’s always been clear the Cubs were adding much more than 1/4th of the value. The Cubs could support their own channel, and it fits with the model of making more money by looking to extend the reach of the franchise. That situation, or their radio/TV deals with WGN, didn’t seem to come up in any discussion.

Signs he’s got a sane head

It wasn’t just saying there’s no curse, and that people who believe in a curse will be moved to a less cursed them, though that’s nice. It’s reading that he used to be in fantasy baseball leagues, that he’s read Bill James Abstracts, and that he seems to be in line with the Billy Beane playoffs belief: “The reason the team has never won the World Series is they were either bad teams that played up to expectations or they were good teams that had bad luck in the playoffs. the end, that’s what it comes down to. To make it any bigger than that, is doing a disservice to the players who are here today and the coaches, and it’s just foolishness.” And still, he’s pretty clear he’s staying out of the way of the baseball ops, leading them to prove or disprove their own abilities without interference.

This is a guy who knows what he’s doing, and cares enough about the team to make it work. In the middle years of this decade, the Tribune made an honest effort to improve the team, to take the blame off themselves for not winning a World Series. Not quite sure that was true the last couple years, where the fortunes of team seemed to support the rest of the corporation, but I think it’s going to be very true from here on out. That’s all I want from an owner.

1. No one got seriously hurt. Low bar, but still. Yes, they lost Ramirez for half the season, but I mean more of injuries that will carry over to 2010. No one’s elbow or shoulder was irrevocably damaged. Rich Harden, Angel Guzman, and Carlos Marmol were all involved, and none has new surgery scars and loose plans for returning in midseason. Soriano is getting knee work done, but that should leave him in a better spot than he was for most of this season. There are question marks here, but not due to a hoped for physical recovery.
2. Derrek Lee was great.D-Lee only played 141 games, due to little injuries here and there, and maybe that’s gotta be the standard going forward.  Playing 10 games less than usual prevented him from setting career marks in counting stats, but his rate stats – what he did when he played – were as great as they’ve been since the spectacular 2005 season. 393 OBP/579 SLG. The double plays were traded for home runs (9% less ground balls, 12 % more flyballs), and a lot better results. He was a 5 WAR player, one of the top 25 non-pitchers in the league (defense counts) and isn’t near as close to being done as feared in April.The batter closest to 0 WAR – in other words, a guy worth exactly about as a random freely available AAA player – is Alexis Rios. The universe is awesome.
3. Angel Guzman survived a full season.

   Guzman’s been on radar of Cubs’ fans since 2003, but he’s been on the radar of arm doctor’s even longer. After years of bouncing around the farm system and barely making cameos on the major league roster before heading right to the DL, this was the year he finally got to put it together. No one’s still hoping he’ll be the starter he was originally promised, but becoming the most solid & consistent pitcher out of the bullpen is plenty enough. 61 IP, 47 Ks, with only 23 BB and 41 Hits against him. After being a guy who had a fastball and didn’t show any much, he threw his slider 1/3rd of the time, and it was pretty effective. If the Cubs had picked their 2009 closer based on how well they were pitching in this season, not next or last, it would’ve been Guzman. As is, he’s looking like the logical 8th inning guy for next season, as part of a cheap & effective duo to close out games.

4. Randy Wells was the happy surprise of the yearBefore the season, I was filling out TangoTiger’s Community Forecast, putting in my guesses for playing times for the Cubs. I remember this, because I saw Randy Wells name and could not even recall who he was. And then I selected “0 IP”. The important isn’t that I’m wrong (that’s never important), but that it’s hard to say Randy Wells exceeded expectations. He was so far off the radar, no one had any expectations for him.Wells was somewhere between 8-10 on the starting pitcher depth chart, and didn’t really get the shot in the rotation because he was good  (though he was in Iowa), or because someone else needed replacing, but because there were no good leftys in the bullpen and Lou thought Sean Marshall was more valuable pitching a couple batters every couple days than starting games (dubious.) Wells wasn’t supposed to start more than a game or two, but kept pitching well and hanging around until they couldn’t get rid of him. Now he stands as a 3rd or 4th starter, someone who’s expected to be in the rotation next season

   Even for those who projected him, in the process of projecting everyone, didn’t see him being this good – he walked less than expected, gave up less homeruns than expected, and threw a lot more innings than anyone expected.

   There are plenty of one year wonders – Rich Hill comes to mind – and I wasn’t thrilled about how many innings they put on his arm after it stopped mattering – but whatever happens next doesn’t taken away from what happened this year. Most pitchers would be thrilled to have one 12 win, 3.05 ERA season. He’s got that banked, everything else just adds on to it.

5. Sean Marshall replaced Alfonso Soriano in right field.Season may have peaked right there. (Let’s put aside they lost that game. Or, if that bugs you too much, put Reed’s catch in Milwaukee here instead.)
6. Ryan Dempster was actually worth his contract4 years/52 for a guy who’s had just 2 good seasons as a starter (but the good sense to have one of them just before free agency) is sort of the kind of move that’s left the Cubs in the finical situations they’re in. Hey, at least this year, it worked out fine. 200 IP, durable. Strikeouts were down, but his walks per 9 were as low as he’s had in any season ever. He didn’t get as much defensive help as last year, and he gave up more homeruns, but he did enough to make Hendry look good this year. At least on that one.
7. Kosuke Fukudome had a non-disastrous season Last year, he put together 3 good months before completely falling apart. This year, he had 2 good months, one horrible, 2 good months, 1 horrible (which no one noticed because everyone had stopped caring.) At this rate, they’ll have to invent a new month for him to be great in by the end of his contract!It was no real coincidence that the downturns in Fukudome’s play correspond with Reed Johnson’s DL stints. This year, the Cubs figured out the rule to play by – under no circumstances should he start against a lefty – and stuck with it as best as they could.

   This is secretly why Sam Fuld probably isn’t making the 2010 team; Reed or no Reed, the Cubs have to get a right hitting platoon partner for Kosuke. Sam hits lefty. If they do keep Reed or get another guy who can play all 3 OF spots, they’re going to want another bat as the fifth outfielder, not Fuld. Someone will get hurt and he’ll come up, but he probably won’t be there opening day.

8. Alfonso Soriano led off for the last time July 3rd. About 2.5 seasons late, but it was right to get a new start on Independence Day.
9. A Ram was great when he was on the fieldI’m stealing from the TV broadcast, but look at these numbers: .317, 29 HR, 128 RBI. The injury robbed him of playing time, but not ability. If he gets back onto the field for 150 next year, he’ll can be counted onto have great numbers once again
10. The sale is (almost) done This franchise has been in various levels of limbo for the last 2.5 years, as the sale has dragged along at least a 1.5 years longer than promised. That limbo bar got awful low last offseason; the moved that were made were made in environment where everything had to be cash equal or just about. If there had been an owner instead of a trustee in charge, would they have been swayed by fan support on keeping certain players? (Would they have made it worse?) Who knows, but I’m just sort of frustrated it with it being a concern. This process is taken a toll on this team, preventing things that need to be done from being moved on (which maybe needs to be another post), and this franchise will be significantly better off once it’s removed from this uncertainty.

Fuld—–>Johnson
Hart—–>Guzman
Hoffpauir—->A Ram

First two are really obvious. Everything Sam Fuld is doing is what Reed Johnson normally does, so you don’t need both. Kevin Hart has barely pitched, and then usually only in mop up – Patton can go back to doing that.

Micah is the only questionable call, but even then, he’s a guy who hasn’t been used much since interleague play ended. With Ramirez back, Jake Fox makes more sense as the 1B/LF/RF, since they can also sub him in at 3B and he’s hitting a lot better. Micah should go down just to get his timing back, because he’s seemed way off when he has gotten in.

The actual tough roster move is going to come when Aaron Miles is ready to go again. If the Cubs expect that to happen before the All Star break and they plan on going to 11 pitches at that point until after the break (which probably would be just for a few games), that may change the decision a little bit. They’d be bringing up a pitcher after the All Star break, and whoever got sent down today would be eligible, so perhaps they might plan ahead.

If that doesn’t play into it, and they think Jeff Baker can add power like they thought, and A Ram doesn’t seem to be having any problems, it’s either Fox or Fontenot getting sent down, probably depending on how they’re hitting at the exact moment the decision is made. Either way, it really should be Miles not coming back, but they’ll make a salary > contributions choice, I’m sure.

11: W 7-5
12: W 7-2
13: L 0-3
14: L 1-7
15: L 3-4
16: L 2-8
17: W 10-3
18: L 2-7
19: W 11-3

Let’s look at it another way.

Runs Scored: 0 1 2 2 3 7 7 10 10 11 (5.3)
No 4s, no 5s, no 6s. Lots of complete blowouts and shutdowns.

Runs Allowed: 2 3 3 3 4 5 7 7 8 10 (5.2)
Much more balanced, but a little packed on the high end.

MVP thru 20

1.58 Soriano
0.82 Fukudome
0.61 A-Ram
0.38 Hill
0.33 Lilly

Highlights in a period of nagging injuries
- a Z game where he wins and gets 3 hours and is completely awesome; guaranteed 2-3 a year. And then penciling himself onto the bench the next day.
- Harden looking pretty solid and getting half the wins in this set. Still have no idea how this is going to turn out.
- Angel Guzman finally getting his first win. Also, all the earliest articles mentioning Angel Guzman on the Tribune site:

May 20, 2002 Q & A

Now that some of the shining stars of the Cubs’ farm system (Patterson, Cruz, Hill and Zambrano) have reached the majors to be quickly followed by Choi, Prior and Kelton, what is the state of the Cubs’ farm system? Are there many, if any, other promising names beyond these and Ben Christensen? Or are we looking at a serious dropoff in talent again? –Larry, Washington, Utah

I’m looking at Baseball America’s list of the Cubs’ top 30 prospects. The first six (Prior, Cruz, Choi, Kelton, Hill and Zambrano) are older guys, but the next wave (outfielder Nic Jackson, right-hander Ben Christensen, shortstop Luis Montanez and left-hander ) are all in Double-A or below. Some of the other prospects the Cubs like are pitchers , Angel Guzman and Felix Sanchez. Most baseball people don’t predict a huge dropoff in talent.

Prior – you know
Juan Cruz – doing okay as a bullpen guy
Hee Seop Choi – back in the Korean league
David Kelton – retired, last played in 2006
Bobby Hill – last seen playing for the Newark Bears
Z – Z!

Angel Guzman
Nic Jackson – indy ball? only made one season at AAA and didn’t hit
Ben Christensen – never made it out of AA
Luis Montanez – AAA/MLB guy for Baltimore
Steve Smyth – made it up the same year, wasn’t ready, drifted back down, last seen in indies
Jae-Kuk Ryu – made it up with the Cubs and the Rays, wasn’t much good. Free agent?
Felix Sanchez – 2 career strikeouts!

Guess the second class was not a dropoff after all. No one knows nothing about prospects, or at least no one who spends all his team covering the major league team knows that team’s prospects.

03/21/2003:

Angel Guzman combines presence with pitches that dance. He has established an extremely high standard yet is only 21, suggesting the really good years lie ahead.

Guzman is the complete package. He should have fans hyperventilating as they count the days until he arrives as an ace with staying power.

But the Cubs have accumulated so many elite arms under general manager Jim Hendry and scouting director John Stockstill that they didn’t need to tip their hands about Guzman.

Not so much. This is the year after Prior came up and we were all willing to be snowed into believing there’d be more like him. The other elite arms:
- Bobby Brownlie – with the Nats? still hasn’t made the majors
- Andy Sisco – fat; ate himself out of the Cubs and other teams since
- Felix Sanchez
- Luke Hagerty – never made it to AA! fine result first a first round pick
- Todd Wellemeyer – yea yea I know
- Jae Kuk Ryu
- Justin Jones – hasn’t made it to AAA, but he started when he was 17 so he’s still only 24 and has a little bit of time left
- Carmen Pignateillo – briefly made it with the Cubs, now doing bad with the Twins (but at least HE made it)
- Billy Petrick – started the season with the Cubs in 07 and ended up all the way back down in A ball in 2008. Playing indy ball in Chicago.
- Ben Christensen

I guess the point here is, even if the first win came about 6 years after people start talking about, Angel still has had a better career than most. And if you really want to be depressed by the level of Cubs drafting this decade, go look at the list of first round picks; unless Brownlie makes it up this year, not a single 1st round will have made it since Prior in 2002. Or second round. Jake Fox and Petrick are third rounders.

And then there’s this: 06/29/2003:

Double-A starter Angel Guzman will have his shoulder examined Monday by Dr. James Andrews in Birmingham, Ala. An MRI of Guzman’s shoulder showed no tear, but even in a best-case scenario, Guzman is expected to miss several weeks.

Did they miss it? Did he just not tear it until later? Doesn’t really matter now.

MVP, by win probably added:
(1 = worth 1 game over five hundred)
0.86 Soriano
0.74 Fukudome
0.55 Marmol
0.38 Koyie Hill
0.32 Lilly

Win probably doesn’t consider fielding at all, so no Reed. Otherwise, that’s about in line what waht I’d say from watching. If anything, it undersells Soriano, who’s carried this team and already given the Cubs 2 wins they had no business winning. (Looking at the numbers, I think it doesn’t include Friday’s game yet, which explains it.) Fukudome has people believing again, Marmol is the relief ace regardless of when he’s being used, Koyie Hill hits better after his fingers were sawed off (who’d figure? anyone who saw him bat in 2007?), and Ted had a really good game in a tight game.

LVP

-0.81 Gregg
-0.48 Bradley
-0.36 Miles
-0.31 Soto
-0.17 Hoffpauir

Most of that is sample size, I think. Sot’s looked hurt, Miles is hitting like Miles. Bradley’s walking, but he’s not getting the hits yet. (Didn’t hit the ump either.) Gregg – well, you blow a game at the end, that’s what you get.

Cubs probably should’ve known Gregg could only get up once per game without his knee locking up before trading for him. That’s one of those things that are supposed to be important when you’re having a closer compeition. And it’s the only reason Gregg is still the nominal closer – Lou’s going to use Marmol when it’s close and whenever he can, though it’ll take a odd situation like Friday’s game where Lou didn’t see it was worth using him until the 9th. If the Cubs are up 1 in the 7th or the 8th, Lou’s not saving Marmol until the 9th. He’s going to get a lot of innings again.

There’s a lot of issues that aren’t really as big problems unless they keep going this way – eventually, they’re going to need some guys who haven’t been hot to pick up with Soriano isn’t, and the bullpen’s going to be totally thrashed if the starters can’t consistenly go longer (funny how the last two Z starts have been him been below average starts lasting longer than anyone would like just to bridge the gap a little.)

Still, so far, so good.

what I’m looking forward to the next 10: going to a couple. I think I’ll start today.

At least, Cubs wise, it’s not my fault. There’s really not a lot meaningful going on. Stuff like the last spot of the bullpen only matters if Angel Guzman and Chad Gaudin is being shipped out, because that last spot will change hands many times during the season. It always does. Same thing with the catching spot (if they don’t keep Koyie Hill, they’ll surely be able to stash him in Iowa.)

Marshall starts as the fifth starter, but should have no expectation of staying there unless he performs. Same thing with Hoffpauir on the bench, and the closer spot – anything that’s so indecisive to be on the line during March can’t really be secured with anything but regular season performance. The big decisions were made during free agency, and the good and bad performances in Mesa won’t mean anything by about April 15.

So far, I’ve been able to keep to my streak of not watching a Spring Training game. The WBC has helped a lot (though not the final round announcers – I’ve got the game on pause as a type this, just so I can fast forward more thru their banality.) But I’m reading people who are watching complain about how much the season needs to get here, and I don’t feel much different. I’m ready for this to get started again.

The one interesting is the whole downfall of Chad Gaudin. There was a stretch after he came over where he was good, right? Not so much, with everyone speculating about him getting cut last week. That trade with the is looking fairer by the day.

This was kind of a conflicting 11th inning. It was impossible to root against the Netherlands. But the whole advantage to having Marmol pitch for the DR instead of in Mesa was to prove himself in situations just like this, game on the line, one run league, the pressure of the world on him.

And, well, Carlos didn’t get lit up, they weren’t the biggest hits he gave up and Holland looked totally overmatched most of the inning. Just not enough of it, and now I wonder how he’ll rebound it. Carlos now has plenty of playoff type ghosts of his own to exorcise:

            IP   ERA
2007 NLDS  3.0  9.00
2008 NLDS  2.2  6.75
2009 WBC   1.2  5.40

In a year where few positions are really up for grabs in spring training – Fontenot is going to start at 2B, Marshall is going to be the fifth starter, and no one cares who the backup catcher is – maybe the closer battle just opened up for real.

(It’s probably worth keeping in perspective – the problem wasn’t the DR’s pitching. Or even fielding, as bad as it was. You’ve got to score more than 4 runs off Netherlands, or everyone on that team needs to be signed tomorrow.)