NJPW SJ ’09 (06/09)

Haven’t had any time to work on this since, and may or may not the next 24 hours. Plenty of other stuff to do, and I love to leave projects half finished. Though I did spend 20 minutes laying in bed thinking of a better way to compute chances of winning (3/4 your win percentage + 1/4 previous opponents win percentage to work strength of schedule in.) Not implemented here, tho’.

Come to think of it, I think ties ARE broken the way I did it. Not using win percentage, everyone in the tie just gets a share of the place – so if there are two in first place, they each get a half a 1st, and each get a half of 2nd. If there’s thirds, they get thirds. So Advance probably isn’t as accurate as I want, because I’d prefer it counts ties and it’s just adding 1st and 2nd here. That, maybe I’ll fix, because it’s too grievous.

This makes no sense to anyone and for that I am glad.

Follow along with results here – really need to add current points here to make it possible to follow along. Really need a new template that doesn’t force all of this to scroll weirdly.

Block A
Name              1st     2nd     Adv     Avg    Mode
Tiger Mask      54.5%   26.7%   81.2%    9.08      10 Jado (11) Black Tiger (13)
Milano          32.1%   31.1%   63.2%    8.41       8 Aoki (13) AKIRA (11)
Prince Devitt    4.6%   19.3%   23.9%    7.11       8 AKIRA (12)
Jado             3.8%    6.9%   10.7%    5.80       6 Tiger Mask (11) Aoki (12)
Aoki             2.6%    7.7%   10.3%    5.79       6 Jado (12) Milano (13)
AKIRA            2.4%    8.3%   10.7%    5.70       6 Prince Devitt (12) Milano (11)
Black Tiger      0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.12       0 Tiger Mask (13)

Block B
Name              1st     2nd     Adv     Avg    Mode
Taguchi         46.9%   22.2%   69.1%    8.57       8 Kanemoto (13) Taichi (11)
Kanemoto        44.4%   22.6%   67.0%    8.49       8 Taguchi (13) Yamato (11)
Kikuchi          4.1%   27.0%   31.1%    7.08       8 Liger (12)
Ibushi           2.4%   14.7%   17.1%    6.31       6 Liger (13) Yamato (12)
Liger            2.2%   13.3%   15.5%    5.94       6 Kikuchi (12) Ibushi (13)
Yamato           0.0%    0.3%    0.3%    3.17       2 Kanemoto (11) Ibushi (12)
Taichi           0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    2.43       2 Taguchi (11)

Could use a way to track changes, but really too late now. Devitt doesn’t improve much for winning, because the projections were presuming he’d almost certainly beat Black Tiger (who’s clearly going to end up beating Tiger Mask, if it matters at all) while Milano shoots up because he and Jado were a pick ‘em.

Taguchi/Kikuchi is really the pivotal match of the day – Taguchi surges to first, his chance of advancing increase by a third, while Kikuchi is cut in half. Kikuchi isn’t done yet, but if Taguchi & Kanemoto win their matches on the 11th (which they should), they’d be better off agreeing to a draw than actually fighting. Not much Fighting Spirit in that, I guess.

I’m intrigued by Yamato going from .2 to .3! What’s the hail mary situation that’s coming up 1 out of every 333 times? Hmmm:

– Yamato wins twice gets him to 6 points, so only one other can be above six points
– Ibushi beats Liger to get to 6
– Liger beats Kikuchi to get to 6 – Kikuchi is also at 6
– Kanemoto beats Taguchi to get 8
– and Taichi also beats Taguchi – Taichi gets 4, not that it matters.

It’d be
Kanemoto 8
Liger 6
Taguchi 6
Kikiuchi 6
Yamato 6
Ibushi 6
Taichi 4

That’s 42 points, so it checks out. You could probably reverse the Taguchi/Taichi finish if Taguchi went on to beat Kanemoto, for something like this:

Taguchi 10
Kanemoto 6
Liger 6
Kikiuchi 6
Yamato 6
Ibushi 6
Taichi 2

Anyway, as anyone could’ve figured out a lot simplier, Yamato/Kanemoto is an Yamato elimination game. And so is Jado/Tiger Mask.

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