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NJPW Super Juniors Playoff Odds Report (06/08)

Jun
08

Have I mentioned lately that I like tournaments? Still do. Still like figuring them out. Still like doing php programs to figure them out Nate Silver style when I’ve got a little too much boredom.

This is as 0f NJPW Super Junior’s 06/08/09 matches, so it’s good for like 3 more hours.

Block A
Name              1st     2nd     Adv     Avg    Mode
Tiger Mask      53.6%   24.1%   77.7%    8.92      10 Jado (11) Black Tiger (13)
Milano          17.5%   22.7%   40.2%    7.31       8 Jado (09) Aoki (13) AKIRA (11)
Jado            19.6%   16.0%   35.6%    7.08       8 Tiger Mask (11) Milano (09) Aoki (12)
Prince Devitt    3.7%   18.3%   22.0%    6.81       6 AKIRA (12) Black Tiger (09)
AKIRA            2.6%   10.8%   13.4%    5.86       6 Prince Devitt (12) Milano (11)
Aoki             2.9%    8.2%   11.0%    5.70       6 Jado (12) Milano (13)
Black Tiger      0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.32       0 Tiger Mask (13) Prince Devitt (09)

Block B
Name              1st     2nd     Adv     Avg    Mode
Kanemoto        40.3%   28.8%   69.1%    8.56       8 Taguchi (13) Yamato (11)
Kikuchi         31.7%   29.4%   61.1%    8.26       8 Liger (12) Taguchi (09)
Taguchi         23.0%   19.3%   42.3%    7.44       8 Kikuchi (09) Kanemoto (13) Taichi (11)
Ibushi           2.4%   12.5%   14.8%    6.31       6 Liger (13) Yamato (12)
Liger            2.7%    9.8%   12.5%    5.80       6 Kikuchi (12) Ibushi (13)
Yamato           0.0%    0.2%    0.2%    3.19       2 Kanemoto (11) Ibushi (12)
Taichi           0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    2.45       2 Taguchi (11)

based on 10,000 spins, with chances of winning future matches based on winning percentage so far, except:
– min win% is 5% (so currently winless Black Tiger does get a win at times)
– Every future match has a 5% chance of being the 1st draw, and that percentage gets cut in half on every draw, so multiple draws are reduced in chance
– 5% win percent bonus for NJPW wrestlers when facing outsiders.

‘mode’ is the final point number the wrestler most often reached. Ties are NOT broken. Haven’t really looked to see how they’re broken this year (and usually it’s never clear to me until it’s over.)

The big success here, besides killing time that could’ve been spent in a productive manner, is I wrote it all in a way that it could be used for any other tournament. There’s definite refinements I could do to make it more easily swappable, but the constants, the participants, and the matches are all easy to get to.

Ideas I’ve already had about improving this
– obviously, a better method of forecasting expected win percentage. Sadly lacking point differential, or a being able to match every wrestler in history to compare to usual paths. Probably would’ve done some guessed Win% predictions based on expected final rankings (and or Adam/Mike predictions depending on my level of manic at that moment), and stepped down their influence so they had no affect after halfway (where everyone is already, how nice.)
– let user select outcome of future matches before running sim (“if Devitt can beat Jado, what’s his chance of advance?”)
– mode percentage (“how often does the most often number come up.”)

I may actually have things to do tommorrow (or things I could’ve done today), so maybe I’ll never think about it again. Who can say.

It’d be cool if I could do this sort of thing for lucha, but AAA has a match it’s billing as the most important in it’s history on Saturday, and I’m not sure they’ve actually gotten around to explaining (or even figuring out) the rules to it yet. Meanwhile, doing a run of league format singles matches to determine a universal champion would give the other guys big main events for a couple months (and easy occasional big main events – what’s drawing better Friday, Shocker vs Dos, or Mistico vs Ultimo or Negro in a real three fall main event?), so they’re instead choosing to crown a champ in their lamest fashion possible.

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