thecubsfan.com

NJPW Super J ’09 Finals

Jun
13

Lost my enthuasim for this, but anyway. Instead of using only win percentage, I’m using 3 parts win percentage and 1 part strength of victory.

Name              Finals   Winner
Kanemoto           50.9%    25.8%
Devitt             50.5%    25.3%
Ibushi             49.5%    24.6%
Aoki               49.1%    24.3%

I don’t really know, but I think that order is about right.

Back to not posting anything here.

NJPW SJ ’09 06/12

Jun
12

It’s a bit academic going into the last day, but…

Block A
Name              1st   2nd   Adv   Avg  Mode
Devitt (8)     100.0%  0.0%100.0%  8.00     8
Tiger Mask (6)  92.1%  0.0% 92.1%  7.84     8 Black Tiger (13)
Aoki (6)        50.2%  0.0% 50.2%  7.00     8 Milano (13)
Milano (6)      49.8%  0.0% 49.8%  7.00     6 Aoki (13)
Jado (6)         0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  6.00     6
AKIRA (6)        0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  6.00     6
Black Tiger (0)  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.16     0 Tiger Mask (13)

Block B
Name              1st   2nd   Adv   Avg  Mode
Taguchi (6)     50.6%  0.0% 50.6%  7.01     8 Kanemoto (13)
Ibushi (6)      50.5%  0.0% 50.5%  7.01     8 Liger (13)
Liger (6)       49.5%  0.0% 49.5%  6.99     6 Ibushi (13)
Kanemoto (6)    49.4%  0.0% 49.4%  6.99     6 Taguchi (13)
Kikuchi (6)      0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  6.00     6
Taichi (4)       0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  4.00     4
Yamato (4)       0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  4.00     4

Block B is easy – Liger/Ibushi and Kanemoto/Taguchi are play off games.

Block A is not much harder. Devitt is at least tied for a spot. Tiger Mask is in with a win, and so is the winner of Milano and Aoki.

Except, that’s make 3 guys for 2 spots – how do you fix that? I’d guess either Aoki & Milano take each other out with a time limit draw, or Black Tiger gets himself on the board. Either way, that’d mean no extra matches needed to get our four finalists.

Block A
Name              1st   2nd   Adv   Avg  Mode
Devitt (8)     100.0%  0.0%100.0%  8.00     8
Tiger Mask (6)  92.1%  0.0% 92.1%  7.84     8 Black Tiger (13)
Aoki (6)        50.2%  0.0% 50.2%  7.00     8 Milano (13)
Milano (6)      49.8%  0.0% 49.8%  7.00     6 Aoki (13)
Jado (6)         0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  6.00     6
AKIRA (6)        0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  6.00     6
Black Tiger (0)  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.16     0 Tiger Mask (13)

Block B
Name              1st   2nd   Adv   Avg  Mode
Taguchi (6)     50.6%  0.0% 50.6%  7.01     8 Kanemoto (13)
Ibushi (6)      50.5%  0.0% 50.5%  7.01     8 Liger (13)
Liger (6)       49.5%  0.0% 49.5%  6.99     6 Ibushi (13)
Kanemoto (6)    49.4%  0.0% 49.4%  6.99     6 Taguchi (13)
Kikuchi (6)      0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  6.00     6
Taichi (4)       0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  4.00     4

Block A
Name              1st   2nd   Adv   Avg  Mode
Devitt (8)     100.0%  0.0%100.0%  8.00     8
Tiger Mask (6)  92.1%  0.0% 92.1%  7.84     8 Black Tiger (13)
Aoki (6)        50.2%  0.0% 50.2%  7.00     8 Milano (13)
Milano (6)      49.8%  0.0% 49.8%  7.00     6 Aoki (13)
Jado (6)         0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  6.00     6
AKIRA (6)        0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  6.00     6
Black Tiger (0)  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.16     0 Tiger Mask (13)

Block B
Name              1st   2nd   Adv   Avg  Mode
Taguchi (6)     50.6%  0.0% 50.6%  7.01     8 Kanemoto (13)
Ibushi (6)      50.5%  0.0% 50.5%  7.01     8 Liger (13)
Liger (6)       49.5%  0.0% 49.5%  6.99     6 Ibushi (13)
Kanemoto (6)    49.4%  0.0% 49.4%  6.99     6 Taguchi (13)
Kikuchi (6)      0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  6.00     6
Taichi (4)       0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  4.00     4
Yamato (4)       0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  4.00     4

Yamato (4)       0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  4.00     4

NJPW SJ ’09 06/11

Jun
11
Block A
Name              1st   2nd   Adv   Avg  Mode
Tiger Mask (6)  91.9%  0.0% 91.9%  7.84     8 Black Tiger (13)
Milano (6)      54.8%  0.0% 54.8%  7.10     8 Aoki (13)
Jado (6)        54.0%  0.0% 54.0%  7.08     8 Aoki (12)
AKIRA (6)       50.0%  0.0% 50.0%  7.00     8 Devitt (12)
Devitt (6)      49.9%  0.0% 49.9%  7.00     6 AKIRA (12)
Aoki (4)        21.3%  0.0% 21.3%  5.82     6 Jado (12) Milano (13)
Black Tiger (0)  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.16     0 Tiger Mask (13)

Block B
Name              1st   2nd   Adv   Avg  Mode
Kikuchi (6)     53.7% 10.6% 64.3%  7.07     8 Liger (12)
Taguchi (6)     50.9%  5.3% 56.3%  7.02     8 Kanemoto (13)
Kanemoto (6)    49.0%  5.3% 54.3%  6.98     6 Taguchi (13)
Ibushi (4)      27.7% 10.6% 38.3%  6.11     6 Liger (13) Yamato (12)
Liger (4)       22.8% 10.6% 33.4%  5.92     6 Kikuchi (12) Ibushi (13)
Yamato (4)       0.0% 10.6% 10.6%  4.89     4 Ibushi (12)
Taichi (4)       0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  4.00     4

No 2nd place in Block A = all scenarios have at least 2 people tied for first. Plenty with more than 2, obviously.

tomorrow:

Aoki vs Jado: loser is eliminated
AKIRA vs Devitt: playoff game – winner advances to the big tie, loser is done.

Yamato vs Ibushi: Winner double their chances of making.
Kikiuchi vs Liger: Kikuchi clinches a share of first with a win and Liger would be eliminated. The other way produces no certainties.

NJPW Super J ’09 reloaded

Jun
10

I fixed this, but didn’t post it. Since I’m waiting for a midnight delivery – it’s on the up and up, I swear – might as well paste this and then go incoherent.

Block A
Name              1st   2nd   Adv   Avg  Mode
Tiger Mask (6)  83.3% 14.1% 97.4%  9.08    10 Jado (11) Black Tiger (13)
Milano (6)      56.5% 27.5% 84.0%  8.39     8 Aoki (13) AKIRA (11)
Devitt (6)      15.4% 28.3% 43.7%  7.09     8 AKIRA (12)
Aoki (4)         9.0% 11.8% 20.8%  5.80     6 Jado (12) Milano (13)
Jado (4)        13.0%  7.2% 20.2%  5.80     6 Tiger Mask (11) Aoki (12)
AKIRA (4)        7.8% 10.3% 18.2%  5.72     6 Devitt (12) Milano (11)
Black Tiger (0)  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.13     0 Tiger Mask (13)

Block B
Name              1st   2nd   Adv   Avg  Mode
Taguchi (6)     59.8% 30.2% 90.0%  8.57     8 Kanemoto (13) Taichi (11)
Kanemoto (6)    58.1% 30.3% 88.4%  8.49     8 Taguchi (13) Yamato (11)
Kikuchi (6)     12.8% 43.1% 55.9%  7.08     8 Liger (12)
Ibushi (4)       7.6% 27.3% 34.9%  6.33     6 Liger (13) Yamato (12)
Liger (4)        5.2% 20.0% 25.2%  5.93     6 Kikuchi (12) Ibushi (13)
Yamato (2)       0.0%  1.3%  1.3%  3.17     2 Kanemoto (11) Ibushi (12)
Taichi (2)       0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  2.43     2 Taguchi (11)

Now ties really are NOT broken, so the Adv column should be read more as “still alive after the 13th”.And the points are on there. But no other structural changes and I don’t know if I’ll bother with anything else.

With all this together, chances more obviously follow directly by points and matches left, but you do get a sense in how locked some are already.

Couldn’t decide how to handle situations where multiple tied for first, but opted to give everyone a first and no one a second.

It’d be fun to graph the Adv number, day by day, to see which match turned out to be the turning point, and I’ve actually thought about how I’d need to rework to code make that work (wouldn’t be THAT hard, just would be work), but I don’t suppose I’ll have that sort of time/interest. FF7+Uncharted2 Beta+Burnout Expansion Pack should mean a full day of PS3 joy.

And there’s the truck. My time here is done!

super super j Comments Off on NJPW Super J ’09 reloaded

NJPW SJ ’09 (06/09)

Jun
09

Haven’t had any time to work on this since, and may or may not the next 24 hours. Plenty of other stuff to do, and I love to leave projects half finished. Though I did spend 20 minutes laying in bed thinking of a better way to compute chances of winning (3/4 your win percentage + 1/4 previous opponents win percentage to work strength of schedule in.) Not implemented here, tho’.

Come to think of it, I think ties ARE broken the way I did it. Not using win percentage, everyone in the tie just gets a share of the place – so if there are two in first place, they each get a half a 1st, and each get a half of 2nd. If there’s thirds, they get thirds. So Advance probably isn’t as accurate as I want, because I’d prefer it counts ties and it’s just adding 1st and 2nd here. That, maybe I’ll fix, because it’s too grievous.

This makes no sense to anyone and for that I am glad.

Follow along with results here – really need to add current points here to make it possible to follow along. Really need a new template that doesn’t force all of this to scroll weirdly.

Block A
Name              1st     2nd     Adv     Avg    Mode
Tiger Mask      54.5%   26.7%   81.2%    9.08      10 Jado (11) Black Tiger (13)
Milano          32.1%   31.1%   63.2%    8.41       8 Aoki (13) AKIRA (11)
Prince Devitt    4.6%   19.3%   23.9%    7.11       8 AKIRA (12)
Jado             3.8%    6.9%   10.7%    5.80       6 Tiger Mask (11) Aoki (12)
Aoki             2.6%    7.7%   10.3%    5.79       6 Jado (12) Milano (13)
AKIRA            2.4%    8.3%   10.7%    5.70       6 Prince Devitt (12) Milano (11)
Black Tiger      0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.12       0 Tiger Mask (13)

Block B
Name              1st     2nd     Adv     Avg    Mode
Taguchi         46.9%   22.2%   69.1%    8.57       8 Kanemoto (13) Taichi (11)
Kanemoto        44.4%   22.6%   67.0%    8.49       8 Taguchi (13) Yamato (11)
Kikuchi          4.1%   27.0%   31.1%    7.08       8 Liger (12)
Ibushi           2.4%   14.7%   17.1%    6.31       6 Liger (13) Yamato (12)
Liger            2.2%   13.3%   15.5%    5.94       6 Kikuchi (12) Ibushi (13)
Yamato           0.0%    0.3%    0.3%    3.17       2 Kanemoto (11) Ibushi (12)
Taichi           0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    2.43       2 Taguchi (11)

Could use a way to track changes, but really too late now. Devitt doesn’t improve much for winning, because the projections were presuming he’d almost certainly beat Black Tiger (who’s clearly going to end up beating Tiger Mask, if it matters at all) while Milano shoots up because he and Jado were a pick ’em.

Taguchi/Kikuchi is really the pivotal match of the day – Taguchi surges to first, his chance of advancing increase by a third, while Kikuchi is cut in half. Kikuchi isn’t done yet, but if Taguchi & Kanemoto win their matches on the 11th (which they should), they’d be better off agreeing to a draw than actually fighting. Not much Fighting Spirit in that, I guess.

I’m intrigued by Yamato going from .2 to .3! What’s the hail mary situation that’s coming up 1 out of every 333 times? Hmmm:

– Yamato wins twice gets him to 6 points, so only one other can be above six points
– Ibushi beats Liger to get to 6
– Liger beats Kikuchi to get to 6 – Kikuchi is also at 6
– Kanemoto beats Taguchi to get 8
– and Taichi also beats Taguchi – Taichi gets 4, not that it matters.

It’d be
Kanemoto 8
Liger 6
Taguchi 6
Kikiuchi 6
Yamato 6
Ibushi 6
Taichi 4

That’s 42 points, so it checks out. You could probably reverse the Taguchi/Taichi finish if Taguchi went on to beat Kanemoto, for something like this:

Taguchi 10
Kanemoto 6
Liger 6
Kikiuchi 6
Yamato 6
Ibushi 6
Taichi 2

Anyway, as anyone could’ve figured out a lot simplier, Yamato/Kanemoto is an Yamato elimination game. And so is Jado/Tiger Mask.

super super j Comments Off on NJPW SJ ’09 (06/09)

i think we can work with that

Jun
09

don’t have much to say about Monday’s Chiefs/Cougars game – yay, KC won, Steve Kleen is hitting well against guys he’s significantly older than and the As sure seem to have that happen quite a bit, there were actually people in the deck seating! – but the one thing that stuck out to me was Chris Sigfriends’ outing, starting with 2 on and no out in the fifth

1) strikeout swinging
2) IBB (after an odd double steal) 
3) strikeout swinging
4) 63 groundout

5) strikeout swinging
6) strikeout looking
7) strikeout swinging

That’ll do!

Uncategorized Comments Off on i think we can work with that

NJPW Super Juniors Playoff Odds Report (06/08)

Jun
08

Have I mentioned lately that I like tournaments? Still do. Still like figuring them out. Still like doing php programs to figure them out Nate Silver style when I’ve got a little too much boredom.

This is as 0f NJPW Super Junior’s 06/08/09 matches, so it’s good for like 3 more hours.

Block A
Name              1st     2nd     Adv     Avg    Mode
Tiger Mask      53.6%   24.1%   77.7%    8.92      10 Jado (11) Black Tiger (13)
Milano          17.5%   22.7%   40.2%    7.31       8 Jado (09) Aoki (13) AKIRA (11)
Jado            19.6%   16.0%   35.6%    7.08       8 Tiger Mask (11) Milano (09) Aoki (12)
Prince Devitt    3.7%   18.3%   22.0%    6.81       6 AKIRA (12) Black Tiger (09)
AKIRA            2.6%   10.8%   13.4%    5.86       6 Prince Devitt (12) Milano (11)
Aoki             2.9%    8.2%   11.0%    5.70       6 Jado (12) Milano (13)
Black Tiger      0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.32       0 Tiger Mask (13) Prince Devitt (09)

Block B
Name              1st     2nd     Adv     Avg    Mode
Kanemoto        40.3%   28.8%   69.1%    8.56       8 Taguchi (13) Yamato (11)
Kikuchi         31.7%   29.4%   61.1%    8.26       8 Liger (12) Taguchi (09)
Taguchi         23.0%   19.3%   42.3%    7.44       8 Kikuchi (09) Kanemoto (13) Taichi (11)
Ibushi           2.4%   12.5%   14.8%    6.31       6 Liger (13) Yamato (12)
Liger            2.7%    9.8%   12.5%    5.80       6 Kikuchi (12) Ibushi (13)
Yamato           0.0%    0.2%    0.2%    3.19       2 Kanemoto (11) Ibushi (12)
Taichi           0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    2.45       2 Taguchi (11)

based on 10,000 spins, with chances of winning future matches based on winning percentage so far, except:
– min win% is 5% (so currently winless Black Tiger does get a win at times)
– Every future match has a 5% chance of being the 1st draw, and that percentage gets cut in half on every draw, so multiple draws are reduced in chance
– 5% win percent bonus for NJPW wrestlers when facing outsiders.

‘mode’ is the final point number the wrestler most often reached. Ties are NOT broken. Haven’t really looked to see how they’re broken this year (and usually it’s never clear to me until it’s over.)

The big success here, besides killing time that could’ve been spent in a productive manner, is I wrote it all in a way that it could be used for any other tournament. There’s definite refinements I could do to make it more easily swappable, but the constants, the participants, and the matches are all easy to get to.

Ideas I’ve already had about improving this
– obviously, a better method of forecasting expected win percentage. Sadly lacking point differential, or a being able to match every wrestler in history to compare to usual paths. Probably would’ve done some guessed Win% predictions based on expected final rankings (and or Adam/Mike predictions depending on my level of manic at that moment), and stepped down their influence so they had no affect after halfway (where everyone is already, how nice.)
– let user select outcome of future matches before running sim (“if Devitt can beat Jado, what’s his chance of advance?”)
– mode percentage (“how often does the most often number come up.”)

I may actually have things to do tommorrow (or things I could’ve done today), so maybe I’ll never think about it again. Who can say.

It’d be cool if I could do this sort of thing for lucha, but AAA has a match it’s billing as the most important in it’s history on Saturday, and I’m not sure they’ve actually gotten around to explaining (or even figuring out) the rules to it yet. Meanwhile, doing a run of league format singles matches to determine a universal champion would give the other guys big main events for a couple months (and easy occasional big main events – what’s drawing better Friday, Shocker vs Dos, or Mistico vs Ultimo or Negro in a real three fall main event?), so they’re instead choosing to crown a champ in their lamest fashion possible.

super super j Comments Off on NJPW Super Juniors Playoff Odds Report (06/08)

Chiefs @ Cougars, 06/07

Jun
07

Not driving to Des Moines kinda worked out: Rich Harden scratched from Iowa rehab start. If I got there and found that out, I think I might’ve just resumed driving west until I sank into the Pacific.

Instead of driving 4.5 hours, I drove about 10 minutes down the road and saw a different Cubs minor league team – Peoria vs Kane County. Since I’m going back today on my regular tickets and will forget all of what I saw by then (or would anyway), here’s some random notes that didn’t actually need to be noted:

  • Vitters’ line for the night: 0-4 with two double plays and one K (looking). Totally bad luck. First AB was a screaming line drive to second, where the fielder had to either catch the ball or it wouldn’t dislodged some vital organs, and the runner had no shot at getting back to first. Ball in the second AB was hit hard on the ground to third, deflected off the third baseman’s glove, scooped and chucked by the shortstop, and (maybe) beat him to first base. Lucky play. He earned the last two outs, but as impressive as you could be with that line
  • I should know who’s managing Peoria and I should check, but I’m folding laundry in between typing and busy enough. Whoever it is, when Vitters was up, they coached third base from about one step outside of the dugout, like 10-15 feet from the actual box. That was a first.
  • Pedro Figueroa doesn’t have good numbers, and he’s a 23 year old in low A so it’s not really counting, but he’s seemed really good the last two times I’ve seen him (this start and May 22nd). A ton of ground ball outs – 1o today – and about as many Ks per innings without walks.
  • Maybe it’s just me, but the Cheifs hitters all seem much better than the Cougars. Which makes no sense given that 7-1 final score and all. Maybe Berroa or someone is going to be good and I don’t know it yet.
  • It was hot and humid and not as much fun to sit outside as it should’ve. Hopefully it’ll be better tonight. Tickets bought the night before were better than I get on my regular package, of course.
  • Still, it was a Sunday afternoon versus the Cubs, in June, and attendence was 5,191. Last time I saw Peoria, last Labor Day weekend, they drew 11,302 on a Sunday and 7,007 on  Labor Day proper. And that was before they added the second deck of (usually empty) sky boxes and (always empty) balcony seating. At least the group seating in the bleachers was completely sold out, for the first time I’ve seen this season. The economy is a brutal thing.

Hopefully it’ll be more full tonight. Even if it’s not, it the future Cubs vs the future guys the A’s will trade before they get expensive, and you really can’t pass that up. The Cougars magic number is 13, and Peoria’s the team they’re trying to put away, so it’s as important as a weekday low level sporting event in the far western suburbs can be in June. (Also, it’s a Cubs off day.)

Uncategorized , Comments Off on Chiefs @ Cougars, 06/07