thecubsfan.com

after 10

Apr
17

6-4! 6-4 doesn’t look great, just one loss away from event, but if you stack together a season worth of 6-4, that’s 97 wins. I think that’ll work.

MVP, by win probably added:
(1 = worth 1 game over five hundred)
0.86 Soriano
0.74 Fukudome
0.55 Marmol
0.38 Koyie Hill
0.32 Lilly

Win probably doesn’t consider fielding at all, so no Reed. Otherwise, that’s about in line what waht I’d say from watching. If anything, it undersells Soriano, who’s carried this team and already given the Cubs 2 wins they had no business winning. (Looking at the numbers, I think it doesn’t include Friday’s game yet, which explains it.) Fukudome has people believing again, Marmol is the relief ace regardless of when he’s being used, Koyie Hill hits better after his fingers were sawed off (who’d figure? anyone who saw him bat in 2007?), and Ted had a really good game in a tight game.

LVP

-0.81 Gregg
-0.48 Bradley
-0.36 Miles
-0.31 Soto
-0.17 Hoffpauir

Most of that is sample size, I think. Sot’s looked hurt, Miles is hitting like Miles. Bradley’s walking, but he’s not getting the hits yet. (Didn’t hit the ump either.) Gregg – well, you blow a game at the end, that’s what you get.

Cubs probably should’ve known Gregg could only get up once per game without his knee locking up before trading for him. That’s one of those things that are supposed to be important when you’re having a closer compeition. And it’s the only reason Gregg is still the nominal closer – Lou’s going to use Marmol when it’s close and whenever he can, though it’ll take a odd situation like Friday’s game where Lou didn’t see it was worth using him until the 9th. If the Cubs are up 1 in the 7th or the 8th, Lou’s not saving Marmol until the 9th. He’s going to get a lot of innings again.

There’s a lot of issues that aren’t really as big problems unless they keep going this way – eventually, they’re going to need some guys who haven’t been hot to pick up with Soriano isn’t, and the bullpen’s going to be totally thrashed if the starters can’t consistenly go longer (funny how the last two Z starts have been him been below average starts lasting longer than anyone would like just to bridge the gap a little.)

Still, so far, so good.

what I’m looking forward to the next 10: going to a couple. I think I’ll start today.

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