Month: November 2006

So, when I last talked to you about A-Ram, I was saying this

Well, this explains why there hasn’t been

Yea, I have no idea where I was going with this. I probably should stop writing three paragraphs at once. Other things I should stop doing…

I hope I’m freaking out about nothing

Well! My bad. 5 years, $73 mil for A-Ram is great…
…except it’s $75 because there’s an option for the 6th year, and he’s getting $2 mil either way
…except there’s a unexplained vesting clause for season 6
…except A-Ram has yet another out clause, after season 4

I was telling someone I hated Hendry over this deal, and they couldn’t quite understand, because the Cubs got A-Ram back for under market value and locked up thru his good years, things I really wanted. I couldn’t quite explain why I was annoyed, and still really can’t, but I think it’s something about going thru this season long drama, believe it to be resolved, and then finding out there’s all sorts of ifs negotiated in. Just as anyone with a IQ over 90 who didn’t work for the Cubs expected Ram to use the out clause in his last contract if he did any good at all, you’ve got to expect him to do it; if Aramis turns out to be worth what the Cubs are paying him thru the first four years, he’ll go fishing for more money in year 5, everything will be back to square one, and Hendry will likely be long gone, and not have to deal with it. I would’ve rather they gave him more in money and less in out clauses.

The other thing that’s slipped notice here, as far as A-Ram’s signing, is this ends The Curse Of The Journeyman 3B Since Santo. Ram’s been a Cubs for 3 full seasons, and will be manning third for at least 7 by the time he reaches free agency again. The length of this contract and his offense performance means he’s going to an important part of Cubs history when people look back at the ’00s; he’s not going to the Hall of Fame, but if he plays the way he has the last three years, he’ll be one of those guys who’s banner is hanging on the concourse (or whatever else they decide to do) for future generations. I hope that sort of thing appeals to him, and not the realization that he’s a made man and can set new records of lazy if he so chooses.

I’m less interested in the Kerry Wood deal. I think people are high on it because they’ve long had a dream of him being a dominant closer, but there’s much bigger chance he has no impact on the season. You can’t assume anything about him till he survives Mesa and is actually on the opening day roster. Not worth getting excited about a guy who’s pitched 85 innings in the last two years. I’d like it to work out, but you shouldn’t start complaining about how he might be used if he might not be used at all.

I hope you don’t mind me skipping over the all important Wade Miller transaction (probably not going to be worth the money, love that it’s incentive based, hate the thought of even penciling him in for rotation spot, fear for the team if he makes more than 5 starts) to get the actual important news.

Agent Paul Kinzer told ESPN.com it will take a six-year deal for a team to sign Ramirez once the Cubs’ negotiating window expires this weekend and the third baseman hits the open market.

…

. When asked if the total dollar figure for a six-year deal for Ramirez could approach $100 million, Kinzer replied, “That’s a good assumption — hypothetically speaking.”

Uh, at 6 years, $16+ per, A-Ram’s going to be wearing a Angels cap next year, that I’m sure of. It’s a shame, because I think he’s a better bet over the longer term for the same or more money than Soriano (better OBP, more consistent player, younger) and Carlos Lee (two years longer, more useful defense), but I’m sure the Cubs will not be down with paying Ramirez an extra $10 mil for two years they thought they already had on contract.

And if you don’t have A-Ram, what do you have? Either you overreach for Lee or Soriano or someone like them, or you don’t really have the power in your lineup to compete. I mean, it’ll be nice that they won’t be able to bench both Theriot and Murton (one of them ought to be able to try to transition to third if their spots get taken), but this team was already going to be stretching to be playoff bound if they kept everyone and just added a player or two – I’m not sure what they can realstic expect to do now that they’ve lost their second best offensive player.

You’re not going to replace the offense, or at least smartly replace the offense in a way which won’t hurt you in the future. So the Cubs can do one of two things

1) Just play young guys and wait it out till you get better offense (no measure of rebuilding is going to go on with Pinella just signed and Hendry battling for his contract, so this is out.)
2) If you can’t get runs, stop them. Spend the big money on pitching – there are far more appealing options out there than hitters this year anyway. Live with Cesar at SS if he can live up to his defensive rep, keep Cedeno around, find a good fielding 3B (Lugo?), and try to balance it with bench players who can hit even if they can’t do much more.

I’ve put off talking about this year’s free agency, because I believed everything revolved around A-Ram’s decision. (Maybe Pierre, to a lesser extent because there’s more guys with his skills available.) I hope they’ve got a plan – just doing what they would’ve if A-Ram’s around is going to be a failed experiment.

I hope I’m freaking out about nothing – the best chance win includes A-Ram – and this is just agent talk, but I think this is quite a turning point for the Cubs and the next couple years.

Well, this explains why there hasn’t been