2006-06-09
A: Ryusuke Taguchi [7, max 9] DCOR Jado [4, max 8] (at least it sounds like a count out of the ring);
A: Jushin Liger [6, max 10] W Sangre Azteca [2, max 4]
B: Wataru Inoue [8, max 10] W Hirooki Goto [2, max 4]
B: Koji Kanemoto [5, max 7] DCO Gedo [5, max 7]
Well…that’s intersting.
IMO, Kanemoto and Gedo’s double knockout ends them (perhaps in more ways than one!) They can max out at only 7 now, and with Inoue already at 8, that requires Tiger Mask IV to go 0-2 (or 0-1-1) versus GENTARO & Gedo. They have better odds of winning a lottery and buying a spot in the second round. I had figured Koji would be a force to the end, and it’ll be intersting to see how (or if!) he comes out for this last match versus Black Tiger IV, since BT4 must win. Gedo is ever so slightly better off because he hasn’t faced Tiger Mask IV yet, but only in theory – it’s not going to happen for him.
The tie in Block A shakes things up for a lot of people
– Liger and Samurai are in control of their own destiny
– Minoru has come back to the point from near death to near control of HIS destiny
– Taguchi seems in deep trouble – the kind of trouble where you have to work out scenarios to see if he’s actually got a shot.
And so I did; there’s 5 matches left in Block A, and 243 possible outcomes. If everyone had an equal chance to win, lose or draw a match, here’s the percentage odds of them finishing top 2 (ignoring tiebreakers)
80% El Samurai
55% Taguchi
54% Minoru
54% Liger
07% Jado
The numbers don’t look bad, but Taguchi’s chances mostly go way down without a win over Minoru, and I don’t think he’s got an equal shot of winning that one.
There’s 36% chance of some sort of more than 2 people finishing with the top 2 scores.
The wackiest scenario left
Jado b Liger
Minoru DRAW Taguchi
Jado b Sangre
Minoru DRAW Samurai
Liger b Samurai
and all 5 guys are left at 8.
Next: 06/10
A: Jushin Liger vs Jado [elimination match for Jado; Liger could lose and tie, but he’d take a huge dip in chances]
A: Ryusuke Taguchi vs Minoru [loser is going to need a truck load of help
B: Tiger Mask IV vs GENTARO [it’s pretty much over with a TM4 win, so….]