The last day of mixed group play.
A: El Samurai b Stampede Kid
CALLED IT. One right.
A: Masahito Kakihara b Jado
With the win, it’s theoritically possible for Kakihara to tie a whole lot of people at 6. It’s probably not a realistic outcome, but it’s enough to give him motivation tommorow.
B: Akiya Anzawa FW Wataru Inoue
Huh. The story seems to be Inoue was hurt during Italy tour (the break in the middle of this tour), and reaggravated it yesterday. Like with Black Tiger, there’s no offical indication that he’s out for the the rest of the tour, and they haven’t taken their matches off the schedule, so far. This throws a monkey wrench in Block B, but we might as wait till tomorrow to deal with it, since today is all Block A.
These are the Block A matches remaining
Minoru vs El Samurai
Stampede Kid vs Hirooki Goto
Masahito Kakihara vs Koji Kanemoto
Three matches, three possible point splits (including draws) per match, so that’s 27 ways this could turn out.
In 14 out of the 27 scenarios, there’s one guy in first and one in second, or two guys tied for a first (where a tiebreaker would determine the winner.) 13 times, there’s 3 or more in the top 2.
Selected scenarios:
The 4 guys at 8 have the same 70% chance of making it in. With a win, they’re either in, or it goes down to tie breakers. If you do not win, you need as many of the other top 4 to do as bad or worse than you did, and hope the multi-way tie breaks your way.
Samurai should be in for certain with a win. There could be a three way tie at 8 if Stampede and Kanemoto also win, but he’s beat them both. In that case, Kanemoto would have the head to head win over Stampede.
If Minoru, Kanemoto and Stampede win, we’ve got a three way tie for first, with all players 1-1 versus each other.
Goto and Kakihara have the same 2 chances to move on: Minoru and Samurai does not end in a tie, Goto wins, and Kakihara wins. Pretty simple for underdogs. The winner of Minoru/Samurai would be first, and everyone besides Jado would be second.
My guess:
Kanemoto beats Kakihara
Stampede DRAW Hirooki Goto
Minoru beats Samurai
Kanemoto and Minoru advance.