Month: September 2004

CHC --- 7 75.25 Zambrano v CIN Claussen
SFG 0.5 6 18.56 OFF
HOU 1.5 6  7.87 Osawlt v STL Williams
SDP 2.5 6  2.62 OFF

Don’t got much to say, don’t got time to make things up. Kinda reassuring the playoff odds keep going up after a bad weekend, but I guess that’s the point in not taking every win or loss like life or death. At least yet.

Last WCIU game of the year.

Winding Down:
– Philadelphia is offically eliminated by a loss and a Cubs win
– Texas is eliminated from the AL Wild Race with a loss or Boston win
– Boston clinches the Wild Card with a win and a Anaheim loss

Best Pitching Matchup On Horrible Teams Of The Day:
Ben Sheets (11-13, 2.85, 61.1 – 5th) @ Randy Johnson (14-14, 2.69, 67.3 – 3rd)

Alou is hitting .258/.356/.552, and people would be happy to see him go. Understandable but very strange. (Umpries wouldn’t, but that’s only be because it’d be a new town where Alou never believes he can be called for a strike.)

[Jake] Peavy [2.25] will need to pitch just 1 2/3 innings in his next start to qualify for the title. Victor Zambrano of the Chicago Cubs is officially first in the NL with a 2.64 ERA while Randy Johnson of the D-Backs is second at 2.69. – Padres Game Summary

If Carlos’ ERA stays the same, Peavy would have to give up 10 ER in 6 IP (typical Peavy length) to lose the title. Alternatively, if Carlos pitched 18 shutout innings in his potential final two starts (less if they somhow clinch before Saturday), it’d only take Peavy giving up 5 ER in 6 IP for Carlos to remain champion.

Basically, Jake’s gotta get hit by a bus. Good luck on that.

Enough pink over there? Why did I choose pink, anyway.

“No one believes me.” “I do.” is destined to become the “HIS FATHER IS THE DISTRICT ATTORNEY!” of this Fox postseason, I believe.

FWIW, my weekend and chances of things getting done during it has gone into a tailspin after Saturday’s game. I’m very much hoping it was Brant Brown’s dropped ball – a devasting moment at time which didn’t mean anything in the long run. But after today, I’m not so sure.

I’m watching SFG/LAD right now (yay $10 MLB.TV for the rest of the regular season) and GB/IND and a little of SD/DEN and basically very confused. Dodgers really don’t scare me as a playoff team, and I hope they beat up the Giants not only to hurt their Wild Card chances, but to move ahead of the Braves. I like the matchup.

Had IWA-MS thoughts, left them on another computer.

Back to TV watching.

LAD +1.0 10 78.07 Perez @ SFG Rueter
CHC ---- 10 78.54 Rusch @ NYM Benson
SFG -0.5  9 35.15 Ruester v LAD Perez
HOU -2.5  9  6.68 Clemens @ MIL Davis
SDP -4.5  9  1.53 Wells v SDP Gosling

(Too soon to add magic numbers. Maybe next week.)

Yesterday: Cubs 6 – Pirates 3 (ChiTrib/SunTimes, DHerald, .com)

Notes:
Trib: Kerry’s back (fine), first trip to NY of the season, Rusch vs NYM, AVG with runners is scoring position
SunTimes: On Hopping, Kerry’s back (fine), Cubs HR in Shea, 15W by two different U23 pitchers in two years ever (Carlos, Prior)
Herald: On Hopping, Kerry’s back (fine), Rusch vs NYM
Cubs.com: Kerry’s back (fine), 15W by any U23 pitcher (Carlos is 11th), 100RBI men (ARam is 14th since 1945, Lee and Alou are close, 3 100RBI guys on one team five times), Maddux on TWIB, AA-AAA 2B Richard Lewis’ broken leg update

Hello, first place. Maddux, awesome for 17 years running. I think Bako clinched his return for next season if he wants to come back for the same pay. Kinda didn’t want to see Latroy get used again this stretch, though it was a save situation. Dusty’s probably thinking he doesn’t want to use Latroy with people on base if at all possible, but I’d rather just give him the day off.

Best lead:

It may be just a coincidence, but reliever Kyle Farnsworth’s luck seems to have changed since the Cubs found a plastic deer, fitted it with a children’s-sized Farnsworth jersey and brought it along on the trip. – Trib

My theory is Goodwin has gotten really bored on the bench this season.

What I really can’t believe is Rusch is starting today. It’s the right move statisitically

Rusch
AUG 1-0 2.49 21.2
SEP 0-1 3.86 11.2

Clement
AUG 1-2 5.60 27.1
SEP 0-1 7.36 11.0

It’s just not the typical Dusty move. Dusty’s gonna stick with his guys till the come up lame, or they prove without a doubt they can’t get the job done. Clement just hasn’t been good, but only of late and Dusty isn’t quick to give up on one of his guys. But we so badly need every game we can get, so Dusty’s making the clubhouse rattling move. Dusty doesn’t do those sort of things, which makes me wonder if there’s an underlying reason Clement’s been ineffective no one’s talking about.

Earlier, when we were talkng about Who Goes To The Bullpen (all the ‘how ’bout we use a five man playoff rotation!’ a couple days ago were hilarious), the thought was Clement really wouldn’t want to be the odd man out, as it’d be a small strike against his credibility as he enters free agency. This is quite larger strike; probably a million dollar one. Definetely not coming back now.

There’s been no quotes from Matt in the papers since the switch was announced, which means he’s not takling to anyone. Haven’t seen him warming up the bullpen either.

Philadelphia’s an underachieving team with a should-be fired manager (at least) who should be disappionted with their placement – but did they at least salvage some credibitliy by by finally taking it to the Marlins, sweeping them and ending their season? It’s at the very least revenge and a story that’ll be dead going into next season. Which is nice, because this team could use as fresh a start as possible.

That’s quite a money start for Doug Davis; by starting his 33rd game of the season, he’s getting a 300K increase in his salary for next season.

Wouldn’t mind it being a money start for Perez too.

LAD +0.5 11 69.56 Alvarez v SDP Wells
SFG  0.0 10 49.96 Schmidt v HOU Backe
CHC -0.5 11 69.66 Maddux @ PIT Figueroa
HOU -3.0 10  5.75 Backe @ SFG Schmidt
SDP -4.0 10  5.03 Wells v LAD Alvarez

SOSA. CARLOS. Though I wonder if they can bring up this stat comparison in arbitration

W-L  ERA   IP  ER
v PIT    5-0 1.02  35.1  4
v rest  10-8 2.99 162.1 54

You’re supposed to beat up on the really bad teams, so I’ve got no problem with that. What’s actually neater is he’s 3-0 with a 0.92 ERA in September. That’s certainly workable.

To feel really safe here, the Cubs would need to get ahead of both the Dodgers and Giants (and stay ahead of the order teams, duh), to avoid the NL West loser to back into a tie, though it may not be exactly necessary. But because the Dodgers and Giants will play next, this looks awful good for the Cubs, who have now actually passed up the Dodgers in probability of moving on.

Playing with the scenarios, the common them seems to be this: if the top 3 stay even after today, the Cubs will be At Least Tied for the Wild Card by winning 2 out of 3 versus the Mets, no matter who wins what games. The best Dodgers/Giants scenarios for the Cubs are sweeps either way; the losing team sinks like a rock towards the trailing teams, and the winning team is irrelevant to the Wild Card.

tCR expands on this idea: the Cubs can be beat for the Wildcard if they win 94 games, so that’s a 9-2 record. Which is nice, but I don’t think anyone’s actually getting to 94 wins; the key is the team that comes out worst of the LAD/SFG series will have taken at least 3 losses, so if the Cubs have a theoretical cushion at this point.

Today is make or break for the Houston Astros; lose, and they’re 4 out with no games left against the teams ahead of them, needing a lot of help and two teams to slump.

San Diego’s better off, because they’ve got the Giants Tue/Wed/Thu next week, and just games against the Diamondbacks after today. Obviously, a sweep of that series is likely necessary, but they’ll be moving up on someone as long as they can take care of business against the DBacks.

This is try #2 for Maddux’s 15th win. He’ll going to cross the 200 IP barrier today (needs 4 1/3). IP’s are important for his contract; the third year (@ $9 mil) kicks in if he gets 400 IP between this year and next. He’s going to get the half he needs this year and a touch more, but this total also seems to indicate he won’t make the big total if he’d even have a stint on the DL next year; missing 3 starts might be too much to overcome to get the 190~ innings he’ll need then.

I can’t believe Glendon is starting in place of Clement tomorrow. I don’t think I disagree, it’s just an incredible move. Maybe I’ll talk about that tomorrow.

I am very thankful Dusty did not follow thru on his threat to close with Kyle last night.

I may have not been doing this for a while because there was a good run of wins while I wasn’t doing these. And I may not be doing them again if I’ve just jinxed a loss tonight

SFG --- 12 32.59 Tomko v HOU Hernandez
CHC 0.5 13 55.48 Wood @ PIT Fogg
HOU 1.0 13 19.83 Hernandez @ SFG Tomko
SDP 4.0 12  2.23 Eaton @ LAD Weaver
FLA 4.5 13  0.74 Willis v PHI Lidle

New set of numbers are BP’s Playoff Odds, listing their chances to get in the playoffs. (Won’t total 100%.) Apparently, the need some work – Twins clinched last night, and yet the White Sox are listed as .0003% chance of winning the division. I guess that’s the odds of the Twins being hit by meteor.

We won’t have the same amount of games for everyone until next Thursday. Maybe things will spread out before then and the three way tie won’t loom as large.

This is the most pivotal three days of the NL Wild Card (uh, so far). Being swept either way for the Giants or the Astros mean they’re done, obviously. If you lose the series 1-2, you’re gonna lose at least one game to the Cubs (Cubs don’t win the series with the Pirates, you can kinda forget them) and one game to the other team.

And it comes down to such huge matchups as Carlos Hernadnez vs Brett Tomko. Tomko’s actually won his last 5 games and is 2-0 in 0.82. Wonder what’s going on there. Makes me suspect the Astros will be 2 out and looking dire at the end of the night.

They’ve already started writing obits for the 2004 Marlins, but I think this Giants/Astros series could allow them to tighten it up a bit. 4.0 games is long to go with these few games left, but I wouldn’t throw in the towel yet. Gonna need a lot of breaks, including help with the Padres.

But they’ve got the Phillies, which means sweep.

Padres are actually get less press than the team that’s behind them, because they don’t have the World Champions and Hurricane Problems angle behind them, but they