Earlier today, I started this post and I don’t know if I actually finished it. But the thought is gone now, so I might as well get it out of here.
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06/04 results, and I think I’ve cleared up the tons of errors I made. This is what happens when I do these things not at home.
Block A:
I ran thru all the scenerios I could think of with Taguchi and couldn’t find one of them to work for 7 points making it thru, so he’s out. Samurai and Inoue are nearly in the same boat, though there are some okay situations:
Inoue (4) b Taguchi (3)
Inoue (6) b Samurai (4)
Inoue (8) b Kakihara (5)
Liger (6) b MA-G-MA (6)
MA-G-MA (7) DRAW Kanemoto (7)
Dragon (7) b Kanemoto (7)
Kakihara (8) b Dragon (7)
Liger (8) b Kakihara (8)
Liger (10) b Dragon (8)
Samurai (6) b Taguchi (4)
Final:
Liger 10
Dragon 8
Kakihara 8
Inoue 8
MA-G-MA 7
Kanemoto 7
Samurai 6
Taguchi 5
That’s typical of all the scenerios for them; ties for playoffs at best, with the advance line right now at 8 but surely going to go up to 9.
Inoue is set up for a late run – he’s got Taguchi, Samurai, Kakihara. I could see him winning all of those matches, because it’s two guys he’s at or above on the depth chart, and one guy who they don’t currently have much invested in.
Liger has a medium level schedule, plus he’s Liger so he’s getting through.
Dragon’s currently 4th with 5 points and has control of his own destiny (max of 11 points, second highest) which would be nice if he had Taguchi, Samurai and Inoue left. He’s got Liger, Kakihara, Kanemoto left, and he needs at least 3 points and probably 4.
MA-G-MA has 6, but has one less match left then the other 6s. One of those matches is Liger, who should have a reciept due for losing in Osaka Pro, and the other is Kanemoto. He’s not really any better off then Dragon.
Block B:
As previously mentioned, Curry, Garuda and Nakajima are out.
Rocky, because he’s got 3 left and against the right people, is in and will stay in for another show if he defeates Curry. Think about being Rocky Romero: your Super J hopes partially rely on Curry Man staying injuried and hopefully Jado and Gedo beating him up during their tag team title match tonight, but if they do, then your match vs Dragon and Curry on the NJPW-LA tapings isn’t a title match because Dragon and an injuried Curry probably won’t beat Jado and Gedo. Either Curry’s well enough to beat them leaving him well enough to beat you, or you lose your tag team title shot but take a step closer to being crowned best Junior in the world. Who do you root for tonight?
I think you root for Dragon and Curry to win and worry about tommorow tommorow, but this stuff must way heavily on his mind as he goes into a trios match tonight. Wonder if it’ll be a distraction.
Baring that Rocky miracle run, it’s just the top half of the group that matters. Naruse has the least points and the toughest schedule (both Dragon and Tiger Mask), so either he steals the tournament spotlight or he goes home with 4th. (He’s going home with 4th.)
On the other hand, Dragon’s the only one in the whole Tournament with a chance for a perfect record, and he’s got a decent shot. He should beat Curry, regarless of his condition, and he’s a safe bet over Naruse. Heat will be the big challenge.
Since he only has two matches left, Tiger Mask’s run is even a bit easier. Again, picking Tiger over Naruse is another safe bet, although having Naruse win one or the other just to shake things up is something that’d be done. Tiger over Garuda is in the same line, but really, Tiger should win both of these. Whether he will or not is the deal – I still think it’ll come down to the last day here and probably even a tie-breaker.
06/06 Picks
Liger over Kakihara
Inoue over Taguchi
Rocky over Curry
Dragon over Naruse