Lost my enthuasim for this, but anyway. Instead of using only win percentage, I’m using 3 parts win percentage and 1 part strength of victory.
Name Finals Winner Kanemoto 50.9% 25.8% Devitt 50.5% 25.3% Ibushi 49.5% 24.6% Aoki 49.1% 24.3%
I don’t really know, but I think that order is about right.
Back to not posting anything here.
It’s a bit academic going into the last day, but…
Block A Name 1st 2nd Adv Avg Mode Devitt (8) 100.0% 0.0%100.0% 8.00 8 Tiger Mask (6) 92.1% 0.0% 92.1% 7.84 8 Black Tiger (13) Aoki (6) 50.2% 0.0% 50.2% 7.00 8 Milano (13) Milano (6) 49.8% 0.0% 49.8% 7.00 6 Aoki (13) Jado (6) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.00 6 AKIRA (6) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.00 6 Black Tiger (0) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.16 0 Tiger Mask (13) Block B Name 1st 2nd Adv Avg Mode Taguchi (6) 50.6% 0.0% 50.6% 7.01 8 Kanemoto (13) Ibushi (6) 50.5% 0.0% 50.5% 7.01 8 Liger (13) Liger (6) 49.5% 0.0% 49.5% 6.99 6 Ibushi (13) Kanemoto (6) 49.4% 0.0% 49.4% 6.99 6 Taguchi (13) Kikuchi (6) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.00 6 Taichi (4) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.00 4 Yamato (4) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.00 4
Block B is easy – Liger/Ibushi and Kanemoto/Taguchi are play off games.
Block A is not much harder. Devitt is at least tied for a spot. Tiger Mask is in with a win, and so is the winner of Milano and Aoki.
Except, that’s make 3 guys for 2 spots – how do you fix that? I’d guess either Aoki & Milano take each other out with a time limit draw, or Black Tiger gets himself on the board. Either way, that’d mean no extra matches needed to get our four finalists.
Block A Name 1st 2nd Adv Avg Mode Devitt (8) 100.0% 0.0%100.0% 8.00 8 Tiger Mask (6) 92.1% 0.0% 92.1% 7.84 8 Black Tiger (13) Aoki (6) 50.2% 0.0% 50.2% 7.00 8 Milano (13) Milano (6) 49.8% 0.0% 49.8% 7.00 6 Aoki (13) Jado (6) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.00 6 AKIRA (6) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.00 6 Black Tiger (0) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.16 0 Tiger Mask (13) Block B Name 1st 2nd Adv Avg Mode Taguchi (6) 50.6% 0.0% 50.6% 7.01 8 Kanemoto (13) Ibushi (6) 50.5% 0.0% 50.5% 7.01 8 Liger (13) Liger (6) 49.5% 0.0% 49.5% 6.99 6 Ibushi (13) Kanemoto (6) 49.4% 0.0% 49.4% 6.99 6 Taguchi (13) Kikuchi (6) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.00 6 Taichi (4) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.00 4 Block A Name 1st 2nd Adv Avg Mode Devitt (8) 100.0% 0.0%100.0% 8.00 8 Tiger Mask (6) 92.1% 0.0% 92.1% 7.84 8 Black Tiger (13) Aoki (6) 50.2% 0.0% 50.2% 7.00 8 Milano (13) Milano (6) 49.8% 0.0% 49.8% 7.00 6 Aoki (13) Jado (6) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.00 6 AKIRA (6) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.00 6 Black Tiger (0) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.16 0 Tiger Mask (13) Block B Name 1st 2nd Adv Avg Mode Taguchi (6) 50.6% 0.0% 50.6% 7.01 8 Kanemoto (13) Ibushi (6) 50.5% 0.0% 50.5% 7.01 8 Liger (13) Liger (6) 49.5% 0.0% 49.5% 6.99 6 Ibushi (13) Kanemoto (6) 49.4% 0.0% 49.4% 6.99 6 Taguchi (13) Kikuchi (6) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.00 6 Taichi (4) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.00 4 Yamato (4) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.00 4 Yamato (4) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.00 4
Block A Name 1st 2nd Adv Avg Mode Tiger Mask (6) 91.9% 0.0% 91.9% 7.84 8 Black Tiger (13) Milano (6) 54.8% 0.0% 54.8% 7.10 8 Aoki (13) Jado (6) 54.0% 0.0% 54.0% 7.08 8 Aoki (12) AKIRA (6) 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 7.00 8 Devitt (12) Devitt (6) 49.9% 0.0% 49.9% 7.00 6 AKIRA (12) Aoki (4) 21.3% 0.0% 21.3% 5.82 6 Jado (12) Milano (13) Black Tiger (0) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.16 0 Tiger Mask (13) Block B Name 1st 2nd Adv Avg Mode Kikuchi (6) 53.7% 10.6% 64.3% 7.07 8 Liger (12) Taguchi (6) 50.9% 5.3% 56.3% 7.02 8 Kanemoto (13) Kanemoto (6) 49.0% 5.3% 54.3% 6.98 6 Taguchi (13) Ibushi (4) 27.7% 10.6% 38.3% 6.11 6 Liger (13) Yamato (12) Liger (4) 22.8% 10.6% 33.4% 5.92 6 Kikuchi (12) Ibushi (13) Yamato (4) 0.0% 10.6% 10.6% 4.89 4 Ibushi (12) Taichi (4) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.00 4
No 2nd place in Block A = all scenarios have at least 2 people tied for first. Plenty with more than 2, obviously.
tomorrow:
Aoki vs Jado: loser is eliminated
AKIRA vs Devitt: playoff game – winner advances to the big tie, loser is done.
Yamato vs Ibushi: Winner double their chances of making.
Kikiuchi vs Liger: Kikuchi clinches a share of first with a win and Liger would be eliminated. The other way produces no certainties.
I fixed this, but didn’t post it. Since I’m waiting for a midnight delivery – it’s on the up and up, I swear – might as well paste this and then go incoherent.
Block A Name 1st 2nd Adv Avg Mode Tiger Mask (6) 83.3% 14.1% 97.4% 9.08 10 Jado (11) Black Tiger (13) Milano (6) 56.5% 27.5% 84.0% 8.39 8 Aoki (13) AKIRA (11) Devitt (6) 15.4% 28.3% 43.7% 7.09 8 AKIRA (12) Aoki (4) 9.0% 11.8% 20.8% 5.80 6 Jado (12) Milano (13) Jado (4) 13.0% 7.2% 20.2% 5.80 6 Tiger Mask (11) Aoki (12) AKIRA (4) 7.8% 10.3% 18.2% 5.72 6 Devitt (12) Milano (11) Black Tiger (0) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.13 0 Tiger Mask (13) Block B Name 1st 2nd Adv Avg Mode Taguchi (6) 59.8% 30.2% 90.0% 8.57 8 Kanemoto (13) Taichi (11) Kanemoto (6) 58.1% 30.3% 88.4% 8.49 8 Taguchi (13) Yamato (11) Kikuchi (6) 12.8% 43.1% 55.9% 7.08 8 Liger (12) Ibushi (4) 7.6% 27.3% 34.9% 6.33 6 Liger (13) Yamato (12) Liger (4) 5.2% 20.0% 25.2% 5.93 6 Kikuchi (12) Ibushi (13) Yamato (2) 0.0% 1.3% 1.3% 3.17 2 Kanemoto (11) Ibushi (12) Taichi (2) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.43 2 Taguchi (11)
Now ties really are NOT broken, so the Adv column should be read more as “still alive after the 13th”.And the points are on there. But no other structural changes and I don’t know if I’ll bother with anything else.
With all this together, chances more obviously follow directly by points and matches left, but you do get a sense in how locked some are already.
Couldn’t decide how to handle situations where multiple tied for first, but opted to give everyone a first and no one a second.
It’d be fun to graph the Adv number, day by day, to see which match turned out to be the turning point, and I’ve actually thought about how I’d need to rework to code make that work (wouldn’t be THAT hard, just would be work), but I don’t suppose I’ll have that sort of time/interest. FF7+Uncharted2 Beta+Burnout Expansion Pack should mean a full day of PS3 joy.
And there’s the truck. My time here is done!
Haven’t had any time to work on this since, and may or may not the next 24 hours. Plenty of other stuff to do, and I love to leave projects half finished. Though I did spend 20 minutes laying in bed thinking of a better way to compute chances of winning (3/4 your win percentage + 1/4 previous opponents win percentage to work strength of schedule in.) Not implemented here, tho’.
Come to think of it, I think ties ARE broken the way I did it. Not using win percentage, everyone in the tie just gets a share of the place – so if there are two in first place, they each get a half a 1st, and each get a half of 2nd. If there’s thirds, they get thirds. So Advance probably isn’t as accurate as I want, because I’d prefer it counts ties and it’s just adding 1st and 2nd here. That, maybe I’ll fix, because it’s too grievous.
This makes no sense to anyone and for that I am glad.
Follow along with results here – really need to add current points here to make it possible to follow along. Really need a new template that doesn’t force all of this to scroll weirdly.
Block A Name 1st 2nd Adv Avg Mode Tiger Mask 54.5% 26.7% 81.2% 9.08 10 Jado (11) Black Tiger (13) Milano 32.1% 31.1% 63.2% 8.41 8 Aoki (13) AKIRA (11) Prince Devitt 4.6% 19.3% 23.9% 7.11 8 AKIRA (12) Jado 3.8% 6.9% 10.7% 5.80 6 Tiger Mask (11) Aoki (12) Aoki 2.6% 7.7% 10.3% 5.79 6 Jado (12) Milano (13) AKIRA 2.4% 8.3% 10.7% 5.70 6 Prince Devitt (12) Milano (11) Black Tiger 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.12 0 Tiger Mask (13) Block B Name 1st 2nd Adv Avg Mode Taguchi 46.9% 22.2% 69.1% 8.57 8 Kanemoto (13) Taichi (11) Kanemoto 44.4% 22.6% 67.0% 8.49 8 Taguchi (13) Yamato (11) Kikuchi 4.1% 27.0% 31.1% 7.08 8 Liger (12) Ibushi 2.4% 14.7% 17.1% 6.31 6 Liger (13) Yamato (12) Liger 2.2% 13.3% 15.5% 5.94 6 Kikuchi (12) Ibushi (13) Yamato 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 3.17 2 Kanemoto (11) Ibushi (12) Taichi 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.43 2 Taguchi (11)
Could use a way to track changes, but really too late now. Devitt doesn’t improve much for winning, because the projections were presuming he’d almost certainly beat Black Tiger (who’s clearly going to end up beating Tiger Mask, if it matters at all) while Milano shoots up because he and Jado were a pick ‘em.
Taguchi/Kikuchi is really the pivotal match of the day – Taguchi surges to first, his chance of advancing increase by a third, while Kikuchi is cut in half. Kikuchi isn’t done yet, but if Taguchi & Kanemoto win their matches on the 11th (which they should), they’d be better off agreeing to a draw than actually fighting. Not much Fighting Spirit in that, I guess.
I’m intrigued by Yamato going from .2 to .3! What’s the hail mary situation that’s coming up 1 out of every 333 times? Hmmm:
- Yamato wins twice gets him to 6 points, so only one other can be above six points
- Ibushi beats Liger to get to 6
- Liger beats Kikuchi to get to 6 – Kikuchi is also at 6
- Kanemoto beats Taguchi to get 8
- and Taichi also beats Taguchi – Taichi gets 4, not that it matters.
It’d be
Kanemoto 8
Liger 6
Taguchi 6
Kikiuchi 6
Yamato 6
Ibushi 6
Taichi 4
That’s 42 points, so it checks out. You could probably reverse the Taguchi/Taichi finish if Taguchi went on to beat Kanemoto, for something like this:
Taguchi 10
Kanemoto 6
Liger 6
Kikiuchi 6
Yamato 6
Ibushi 6
Taichi 2
Anyway, as anyone could’ve figured out a lot simplier, Yamato/Kanemoto is an Yamato elimination game. And so is Jado/Tiger Mask.
don’t have much to say about Monday’s Chiefs/Cougars game – yay, KC won, Steve Kleen is hitting well against guys he’s significantly older than and the As sure seem to have that happen quite a bit, there were actually people in the deck seating! – but the one thing that stuck out to me was Chris Sigfriends’ outing, starting with 2 on and no out in the fifth
1) strikeout swinging
2) IBB (after an odd double steal)
3) strikeout swinging
4) 63 groundout
5) strikeout swinging
6) strikeout looking
7) strikeout swinging
That’ll do!
Have I mentioned lately that I like tournaments? Still do. Still like figuring them out. Still like doing php programs to figure them out Nate Silver style when I’ve got a little too much boredom.
This is as 0f NJPW Super Junior’s 06/08/09 matches, so it’s good for like 3 more hours.
Block A Name 1st 2nd Adv Avg Mode Tiger Mask 53.6% 24.1% 77.7% 8.92 10 Jado (11) Black Tiger (13) Milano 17.5% 22.7% 40.2% 7.31 8 Jado (09) Aoki (13) AKIRA (11) Jado 19.6% 16.0% 35.6% 7.08 8 Tiger Mask (11) Milano (09) Aoki (12) Prince Devitt 3.7% 18.3% 22.0% 6.81 6 AKIRA (12) Black Tiger (09) AKIRA 2.6% 10.8% 13.4% 5.86 6 Prince Devitt (12) Milano (11) Aoki 2.9% 8.2% 11.0% 5.70 6 Jado (12) Milano (13) Black Tiger 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.32 0 Tiger Mask (13) Prince Devitt (09) Block B Name 1st 2nd Adv Avg Mode Kanemoto 40.3% 28.8% 69.1% 8.56 8 Taguchi (13) Yamato (11) Kikuchi 31.7% 29.4% 61.1% 8.26 8 Liger (12) Taguchi (09) Taguchi 23.0% 19.3% 42.3% 7.44 8 Kikuchi (09) Kanemoto (13) Taichi (11) Ibushi 2.4% 12.5% 14.8% 6.31 6 Liger (13) Yamato (12) Liger 2.7% 9.8% 12.5% 5.80 6 Kikuchi (12) Ibushi (13) Yamato 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 3.19 2 Kanemoto (11) Ibushi (12) Taichi 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.45 2 Taguchi (11)
based on 10,000 spins, with chances of winning future matches based on winning percentage so far, except:
- min win% is 5% (so currently winless Black Tiger does get a win at times)
- Every future match has a 5% chance of being the 1st draw, and that percentage gets cut in half on every draw, so multiple draws are reduced in chance
- 5% win percent bonus for NJPW wrestlers when facing outsiders.
‘mode’ is the final point number the wrestler most often reached. Ties are NOT broken. Haven’t really looked to see how they’re broken this year (and usually it’s never clear to me until it’s over.)
The big success here, besides killing time that could’ve been spent in a productive manner, is I wrote it all in a way that it could be used for any other tournament. There’s definite refinements I could do to make it more easily swappable, but the constants, the participants, and the matches are all easy to get to.
Ideas I’ve already had about improving this
- obviously, a better method of forecasting expected win percentage. Sadly lacking point differential, or a being able to match every wrestler in history to compare to usual paths. Probably would’ve done some guessed Win% predictions based on expected final rankings (and or Adam/Mike predictions depending on my level of manic at that moment), and stepped down their influence so they had no affect after halfway (where everyone is already, how nice.)
- let user select outcome of future matches before running sim (”if Devitt can beat Jado, what’s his chance of advance?”)
- mode percentage (”how often does the most often number come up.”)
I may actually have things to do tommorrow (or things I could’ve done today), so maybe I’ll never think about it again. Who can say.
It’d be cool if I could do this sort of thing for lucha, but AAA has a match it’s billing as the most important in it’s history on Saturday, and I’m not sure they’ve actually gotten around to explaining (or even figuring out) the rules to it yet. Meanwhile, doing a run of league format singles matches to determine a universal champion would give the other guys big main events for a couple months (and easy occasional big main events – what’s drawing better Friday, Shocker vs Dos, or Mistico vs Ultimo or Negro in a real three fall main event?), so they’re instead choosing to crown a champ in their lamest fashion possible.
Not driving to Des Moines kinda worked out: Rich Harden scratched from Iowa rehab start. If I got there and found that out, I think I might’ve just resumed driving west until I sank into the Pacific.
Instead of driving 4.5 hours, I drove about 10 minutes down the road and saw a different Cubs minor league team – Peoria vs Kane County. Since I’m going back today on my regular tickets and will forget all of what I saw by then (or would anyway), here’s some random notes that didn’t actually need to be noted:
Hopefully it’ll be more full tonight. Even if it’s not, it the future Cubs vs the future guys the A’s will trade before they get expensive, and you really can’t pass that up. The Cougars magic number is 13, and Peoria’s the team they’re trying to put away, so it’s as important as a weekday low level sporting event in the far western suburbs can be in June. (Also, it’s a Cubs off day.)
(I think I wrote this on Monday night/Tuesday morning. That’d make sense, as much as any of it does.)
This Cubs losing streak is costing me sleep. This is not some figurative whine about the badness of the last week and a half, this is a literally “I’m unable to go fall asleep after losses.” Like, I think the only close to full night of sleep I’ve gotten is Sunday, because it was a day game and gave me many many hours to wear myself out feeling miserable. At this point, I’m hoping for a win, but hoping to remain lucid until Wednesday’s day game.
While insomnia has me, I figured I might as well work thru the ideas in my head. This actually, where I got a post stuck out of my head out in to paper, and then fell asleep soon after. Didn’t actually post it, but details are for suckers.
Let’s talk about TV shows I’ve already slightly talked about in a different place. Maybe I’ll make this not absurdly, for a change.
Scrubs: this could’ve been worse, given the (non!) victory lap. The interns were good – better on the websiodes – and there were a few episodes which were actually really good; a best of Scrubs DVD would be like a half dozen episodes about death, I think. There were no “will JD & Elliot stick?” plots – they did, they had a fight, but they was not the usual aching about it, which was a nice change. Not sure why they spent two episodes in the islands, now that I think about it, except it allowed them two spend two episodes in the islands.
I liked the show enough that I’m okay with the idea of the people making it trying to make some more money by beating the horse a bit more. If they can get paid for making afterMASH, more power to them. But, at the same time, they could’ve done a better job of making us see the point of doing any more, what with the final being so definitive the story being over. Don’t get me wrong, I really liked the ending and appreciated it over leaving things open for another season, but when the show’s been based around the lead character’s wacky adventures at his hospital, it would’ve been nice to get some idea for what the show was now going to be out when those that lead character was no longer going to be at the hospital. Not to mention the hard to miss ending bit of the architect of the show literally taking down the canvas where future stories were played out, and throwing it in the trash. Symbolism wasn’t exactly subtle.
Maybe my real problem is with being told not to think all future Scrubs episodes are unnecessary by the same people who just told My Last Ever Episode? Or maybe, if they want to keep using the “Cheers->Fraiser” comparison with what they plan to do, they need to go all the way and change the name of the show before next season. (Oh, but then it wouldn’t be Scrubs, and the DVDs wouldn’t sell as well and I think that’s all we’re here for at this point.)
Everyone Hates Chris: A comedy featuring voice over narration of the lead (male) characters struggles, including his interaction with a huge cast of eccentric characters. Somehow this one got slightly less attention for ending. I only knew when I heard Todd Briges mention it to Bryan Alvarez – no, I can’t believe that’s actually what occurred either – but I had seen the ratings enough to know this was doomed. And, giving it being a predominantly minority cast, a sitcom, and on the CW, it did pretty well to last four seasons.
Not making the claim this was a great show – it’d be one that’d stack up on my TiVo and get watched in bunches when I realized they were about to be deleted – probably because I think I’ve now seen every show about someone coming of age I need to see in my lifetime. But it was a show that had it’s great moments, and a show so under the radar (that’s the minority/CW thing again) that few saw them.
Like the final scene. For no reason besides they could and it’d be a hilarious, Chris waiting for the results of the GED which would change his life (just don’t ask me how) ends up being Chris playing Tony Soprano in replica of the last scene from the Sopranos. Like, with every bit they could manage to squeeze in – onion rings, Chris watching ominous looking individuals walk by his table in slow motion, everyone singing along to a cheesy eighties song, someone having trouble parking their vehicle – all right up to the moment where Chris gets the envelope with his GED score instead, and the show immediately goes to black.
Though, to really pay it off, they should’ve waited a beat and then jumped back to give the answer (or maybe a non-answer, and the usual coda) – it didn’t quite make the leap to parody it needed to be. But it was still enjoyable enough as is, like the rest of the show. And we didn’t really need the answer, since they made sure to wink at Chris’ inevitable future if the show was to continue following the pseudo-autobiography of Chris Rock path. (Though I was kind of surprised it never tied into the b-plot.)
Because of this show, I won’t keep seeing Tichina Arnold as Pam. (Though having Gina show up here as a guest somehow made my year.) As a tradeoff, Terry Crews is totally Julius now and forever, no matter how many movie trailers I see him in as Menacing Guy #2
Okay, now I’m meandering on wikipedia and finding out things like the engineer at the radio station on Martin worked at is now the father of Ben Linus on LOST. Need to sleep.
Let’s not talk about the games. That would be fun. Let’s talk about the roster crunch.
Z!!!!!!! returns today, to brighten our days and warm our nights. Problem is, someone has to leave to make room. And it’s a totally obvious pick.
RP Ascanio: gone blown up good over the weekend, but looked really effective last night
RP Wells: techincally Z’s replacement, but has yet to actually give up an earned run, might be worth keeping around
RP Patton: not ready for this level, hasn’t pitched since May 9th (!!!), but can’t be sent down without being offered to the Rockies (and I keep thinking it’s the Reds because of that trade.)
RP Cotts: bad, though actually okay last time out but still Lou’s clearly lost completely faith in him. But can’t be sent down without eating the rest of his ($1.1 mil) contract, and that’d be #3 ate already this season.
3B Scales: kinda extraneous the second they traded for Freel, but is one of the few guys actually hitting. Possibly has to go thru waivers to get back to Iowa and might actually get grabbed at this point
SS Miles: still has 1.6 years and $4 mil left on his really dumb contract. Would not have a role on this team except he can play SS and no one else but Theriot could. Seriously, I can’t believe how great a player Ronny Cedeno apparently was, because the Cubs have had plenty of luck finding people who can play 2B and 3B, and 2B and SS, but playing all three is nigh impossible, and so you have 3 backup infielders when you really need 2 (and 1 Jake Fox.)
If Freel wasn’t just picked up, he might go on the list too. Reed is even a slim possibility, since he’s been reduced to 6th OF with Kosuke and Micah off to good starts, maybe even 7th behind Freel, but I think everyone still feels we’ll need depth there later on.
I think I’m rooting for Cotts to be cut, even though I think Marshall doesn’t really fit as a 1 out lefty (which is really only a problem if they use him like one), but I don’t think the Cubs are ready for that. Barring that, I’d really like to see a trade to get Patton to AA or AAA, since the Cubs really don’t need to continue playing with a 24 man roster. Both wouldn’t be bad if we could get Jake Fox up – even if he sucks, this is a good time to let him prove it because everyone else isn’t looking much better.
Can I say, this Padres series works out well for me, for once? I’ve got tickets to a 6:30 Cougars game tonight, which means I’ll probably catch up live watching the game on TiVo before it’s over. I think I’m stuck going out to dinner Saturday, but will be back in plenty of time for the game. And Sunday’s a day game, a fine day to flip between it and the indy race. Plus, they’re the Padres, so things may look up.