thecubsfan.com

I was going to write a post about video games, but I’m going to save it later. And maybe elsewhere So, other stuff:

• wrote my thoughts about Scott Pilgrim over here. I think that might have been the first movie I’ve seen in a theater in…uh, I don’t know. May go see Inception or something this week; I have time to kill in the early evening right about now. Haven’t bought the Scott Pilgrim PSN game, but may get it after I finish this week’s TV.
• four fantasy drafts down, one to go. Did the single live on on Saturday. Always fun when you’re the person typing in all the info during the live draft and your battery dies and you’ve left the cord at home. I planned ahead and lived happily ever after. And picked up my silly trophy.
• Someone drafted Fred Jackson, Vincent Jackson, and Ben Tate, and we are all so annoyed with him for showing up 45 minutes later and completely unprepared that we just let him do it. Late Guy also spent the last 40 minutes of the draft about how late we were going. Can’t imagine why. He won’t be coming back next season. Shouldn’t be this tough to get 10 sane people, and it’s not like we’re holding to a high standard of saneness.

  It was late. I left my house at 4:15p, didn’t get back until 2:15a. Draft actually wrapped before 11. Long discussion about how everyone did (with everyone declaring everyone who was still there did great, lying), midnight trip to Denny’s (as the people behind us discuss the best hiding spots in case of drive by – usual Denny’s) and a long multistop trip home. Still tired.

• Last draft is tomorrow. The scoring rules are absurd. There’s a 0.00001% Seadawg is reading this (or anyone is reading this), but he knows his scoring rules are absurd. Five leagues, and only one league even close to ‘standard scoring.’
• Would be genuinely surprised if there’s not another Cubs move before the deadline. And there many, many more critical issues for that team than who’s next year’s manager.
• Kane County is 1.5 on the last spot with 9 to play. Can’t wait to see how this goes bad! Going on Sunday, probably going on Thursday. Maybe I’ll actually talk about these games.

(by wins over replacement)

Mike Fontenot
2005 0.1
2007 0.6
2008 3.0 - also, totally awesome
2009 0.4
2010 0.1
--------
4.2

Sammy Sosa
2005 -1.1

Cubs 4.6 (+ single A player)
O’s -1.1

I hope the outright player dumps to come this off season work out half this well.

Thanks for 2008, Mike Fontenot, but I don’t know why you were on team for the last year.

Took a mental night off. Maybe not literally, because I really can’t ever stop mental, but a night off from creating or writing or editing or fixing stuff. It’s been a long few days. Plan was to watch the Cubs and maybe read (1), but a second night in a row with a disaster start made the Cubs not an option. I had a bunch of Party Down episodes I acquired after Starz canceled it – the eulogizing for it was the best promotional campaign it had, but I guess CPR doesn’t work on people who are already in coffins. I loaded up Gamecast to keep an eye on the game, and started tearing thru the episodes.

Party Down is as good as advertised. (2) So good, that I only took a quick look at the score, saw it was 7-1 (hooray, A-Ram homerun, that opt out is coming back into play) and then completely forgot about it. I was just starting to watch episode 6 when my laptop started to make noise – sounded like an ad, couldn’t find an ad. Found that Gamecast, and noticed it was the usual post game video highlight roll MLB.com automatically shows after a game was over. Took a quick look at the score and – maybe it was a double take, maybe it was a triple take, but most likely it was a quintuple take. 14-7, Cubs. (4)

This is where we are in the 2010 Cubs season. The Cubs pull off their biggest win of the season, the most thrilling sequence of the year, and me and most everyone home watching preferred to watch canceled sitcoms. Which, more than family or age, is why Lou Pinella is retiring this season.

Look. I don’t think the team’s standings are particularlly Lou’s fault. (3) I don’t think the team put together was much good, but when your two best hitters over the last four years suddenly become two of the worst hitters in the league, it really doesn’t matter. Z’s not pitching well didn’t help, the bullpen didn’t help, but that stuff could’ve gone well and they would still be under .500 if Ram was hitting .150 and batting 4 (5). This team was doomed with any manager.

I’m not one who really cares if Lou is yelling at players or umpires in view of the dugouts. I’d rather see actual actions, and he seemed slow to make changes until situations forced his hands. Lou seemed to mentally check out on the season by mid June, and the team needed more than that. Lou might have not been able to do anything different, but if he makes no difference and doesn’t care, then it’s okay to give that job to someone else. Lou stood to gain something if he could bring a World Series to the Cubs, but he had nothing to lose if he didn’t – it’s always the Cubs fault, not the manager. This team is going to have an even tougher time next season, and it’ll need someone with a bigger stake in it’s success.

The real news today wasn’t Lou retiring. He wasn’t coming back once the team struggled earlier and never recovered. It’s been clear for a couple years that Ryne Sandberg would be taking over in 2011, unless he didn’t want it or screwed it for himself. The real news was Tom Ricketts saying Jim Hendry would be GM going into the next season. Ricketts said it in a way where he could still fire Hendry early in 2011 and not be telling a lie, but Hendry is going to be the guy putting together next year’s team. This is news only because of how poorly his moves have gone the last couple of years. Just like the guys anchoring the team, Hendry has a long term deal (two more years) and the club doesn’t want to eat the extra years.

I wasn’t watching the game because games like the first half of this one had already made the season irrelevant. The Phillies series was a nice flash back to the two playoff runs, a fun reminder of the best stretch of Cubs baseball in my lifetime. A lot of the people who’ve made up the core of these teams are going away at the end of the season, and it was nice to be reminded why we’re going to miss them. It was good bye. This series, everything from now to the end of the season, is like an awkward reunion right after the goodbye. Everyone ready to move on and looking for easy excuses to call it off. They make us play out the season, but not actually watch it. (6)

There is the slight chance this week was the start of something very cool. Because I’m a sucker, that’ll be enough to get me to pay attention to this for a while longer. It doesn’t take much.

(1) ESPN Magazine’s article on the Dodger’s divorce was good if you hadn’t been following the situation at all, but nothing really new. The Rashard McCants profile was good, but I’d read that before it the physical magazine had gotten to the mailbox, which is the story of reason I don’t actually read the magazine most weeks. I’m reading Breaks of the Games at the pace of five pages every two weeks and probably should’ve just worked on that.

(2) It took me a few episodes to get there. There was a two minute span where I said “wow, I like these people” and then “wow, I HATE these people” (7), but I was sold on it being a great show by the gun to the head bit. There’s still stuff I don’t like; there are characters who are not so much characters as one line jokes which are hit over and over again. I’m not saying Writer Of Hard Sci Fi and Pretty Boy Dumb Actor, to pick two, do not exist in the world, but they are so amazingly 1 dimensional (or maybe even a half a dimension) that I would hope never to meet them, much less watch their antics on a weekly basis. the relationship was pretty predictable from their first scene together, but those characters at least surprise me now and then. They make the show great, and I can’t wait to go back and watch the rest. (8)

(3) Though it’d be nice if he actually realized Soto can hit and moved him up in the order.

(4) and so I started watching the game from where I left off and typing this post

(4) Which is actually Lou’s fault too, but I’m trying to be kind.

(6) this is a horrible, horrible post. If you’re actually reading this, it’s because I hoped to expel this particular bit of horribleness from my mind in hopes that I’d have a less for the rest of my life. I apologize to you, you thought I was actually posting again, and I go and do this to you. Usually I just delete the horrible stuff but I’m really to tired to keep up appearances. And yet, I’m writing this post near midnight, I wonder why I’m always tired.

(7) which reveals me as someone who talks to the TV at times. It’s a long week.

(8) And then maybe watch more quality TV? Either Veronica Mars, the Wire, or the full run of WMAC Masters that Kidnapped by Ninjas found? I thought that show was absurdly fascinating when I was watching it back in the day, I can’t even imagine how it holds up today. I’d do podcasts on that now, totally.

Better pointlessly late than never. Cougars are suddenly/near randomly hitting like crazy and playing good for the first time in about four half seasons. Playoffs? Nah.

You know it’s a blow out when there’s an actual pinch hitter not due to injury. There is no strategy in minor league baseball.

Always nice to end it on a line drive tag out double play.

Should’ve written this post a month ago, but this team needs as few words as possible

CA – OK
1B – need new starter
2B – need new starter
SS – OK
3B – stuck with current starter

LF – stuck with current starter/borderline OK
CF – OK
RF – offseason salary dump?

SP1 (Dempster) – OK
SP2 (Silva) – OK
SP3 (Zambrano) – stuck with current starter?
SP4 (Lilly) – need new starter
SP5 (Wells) – uncertain

CL – OK
LH Setup – OK
RH Setup – OK (assuming it’s Cashner)
everyone else – uncertain -> need new reliever

The Cubs can, and probably will, fill any rotation hole and most of the bullpen from the minors. They’ve got the guys to try, and they can use the money saved from Lilly elsewhere (needed to improve positions, most likely eating a salary.) Signing one vet for the pen would not be a surprise.

They have the replacement for RF, and finding a new home for Fukudome might be priority #1 for whomever is the GM next year. (I presume Zambrano will be either settled this year, or proved unmovable for anyone and be put on the back burner.)

The Cubs do not have a major league caliber replacement for 1B or 2B. They could bring back Lee and keep Theriot, but both would almost certainly command more than what they’ll produce, and there’s going to be great pressure to shake things up. The big problem is the guys the fans generally like (Theriot, Lee, Lilly) are the easiest to move away from to get to that change. This will not go well.

If I’m not writing things here, maybe I can use it to link to long-ish stuff I write elsewhere? Over on the-W, I wrote a post about the PS3 kart game I’ve been playing a lot lately. Game is good, post is eh.

The one thing I forgot, but is true of all almost games which have where you can create your own character, is it’s frustrating not to get all of the character options until you beat the game. After I’ve beat the game, I’m a lot less interested in who I’m using, you know?

My PS3 username is thecubsfan21. Someone has the non-numbered version; I forget I don’t ever six months or so. I may or may not accept friend requests. I used to not be in a hurry to do it, but now that I don’t care that someone beats by best times on Burnout Paradise, I’m much better.

Since my kinda-sorta protest is almost over, maybe I should get this up it’s out of date.

Went to Cougars vs LumberKings game last night, the first game officially on my truncated ticket package this year. There are 3 more games in the next two weeks, very annoyingly designed. Game was zooming around for the first 7 innings. No one knew the game wasn’t half over by then.

I’ve switched from pencil and paper to using the iScore baseball app. This was the fourth game I’ve tried; it took me the first three to figure out what I was doing. I’m still probably only something like 98% accurate, but that’s about usual the other way. You can compare to the official scoring here.

That last chart is the pitching data. You can actually chart pitch location and type, but I’m thinking most people aren’t sitting directly behind home plate (and have strong pitching identification skills) and wish this had an alternate display. Maybe it’s there and I still need to find it.

Notes & assorted weirdness

• this iteration of the Cougars is not very good. They’re well out of the playoff position for the 1st half, and will be out of it again in the 2nd half unless there’s some hitting reinforcements.
• Blackhawks vs Flyers started after this game, finished before the end of this game, and featured more scoring. Game drew just over 7,000 despite going head to head with a Stanley Cup game, though maybe it was more like 5,000 in the building.
• Cougars were down to their last out when they got two runs to tie it up. This seemed like a good idea at the time.
• Joshua Lansford pitches so slow.
• Daniel Carroll’s plate appearance in the 12th was the most minor league moment of the game. With Baron on second and no one else on, Carrol grounded the ball back to the pitcher, who fielded it cleanly and spotted Baron running for third. The pitcher ran at the runner, forcing him to run back towards second. Pitcher threw to the shortstop, covering second, who chased Baron towards third. Shortstop threw to third baseman, who ran the runner back towards second. This time, the third baseman seemed to wait too long to make the throw, only getting it to the man covering second (the second baseman now) as Baron was touching second.Smart play, because Carroll had over-agressively ran past first all the way to second, believing Baron would get tagged out. Instead, Baron got to second right before Carroll did. Second baseman tags the hitter Carroll after he steps on the base, then Baron as he steps off the base too late (!!!) for a strange double play.
• The last pitcher for the Cougars, Juan Nunez, is actually the back up catcher. He was throwing 85-88 (no breaking ball!) and got two strike counts and a swinging strike, but could not get out of the jam.
• I tried to flip my cap for a rally hat in the bottom of the 15th, but it wouldn’t sit right on my head. I take the blame for the loss.
• This was a fireworks night, but they needed too late for fireworks, so everyone who stuck around gets to exchange it for a ticket. Hooray free baseball.

01 SS Theriot
02 RF Fukudome     09 ?F X Nady
03 1B Lee
04 3B A Ram        10 3B C Tracy
05 LF Soriano      11 OF T Colvin
06 RF Byrd
07 CA Soto         12 CA K Hill
08 2B Fontenot     13 2B J Baker

14 SP Z!           19 RP S Marshall
15 SP Dempster     20 RP J Samardzija
16 SP Wells        21 RP J Russell
17 SP Silva        22 RP J Berg
18 SP Gorzelanny   23 RP E Caridad
                   24 RP J Grabow
	           25 RP C Marmol

DL Lilly
DL? Jeff Gray - running a few weeks behind, and they had plans of using him;
                keeping him on ML DL saves an option for now
60DL Guzman

Yep. I don’t remember what projections I was looking at; there are many out by now, and I’ve looked at a lot of them. Which ever one it was (the one that was a sum of many projections, run many times?), they pegged the Cubs for about 83 wins, with a range of 72-90. That’s exactly where I’d have them based on this roster. They’re low 80s with a 10 game swing either way. It’s a fault of management to be that low, but at least there’s a chance.

The more I think about it, the less concerned I am about the inexperience of the bullpen. If you believe the vast majority of bullpen arms are unpredictable and unreliable from season to season – which I do, because otherwise they wouldn’t be bullpen pitchers – then you might as well go cheap and promising with it than expensive and flawed. There are going to be some games blown because the rookies blow a lead, and it will be the roster mistake which will get Hendry in the most trouble (because there’s nothing more dramatic than a game lost you should’ve won), but it’s hardly the worst thing here. This is a sounder move than 2010′s Scott Eyre and Bobby Howry.

Making decisions on 40 ABs in spring training is a great way to screw yourself up, but if everyone believes Tyler Colvin’s true upside is major league fourth outfielder, what’s so horrible about using him in that role?

Xavier Nady playing outfield despite being unable to throw the ball is the underplayed story of the season. Really, he shouldn’t be doing anything more than pinch hitting, but they’re making noise as if he’s going to actually start and platoon with Fukudome a little bit. Runners taking extra bases are going to get old quick.

This team kinda shifted to the back of my mind the last couple weeks, but I’m exicited to get this started now (and kinda disappointed I didn’t figure out a way to join a fantasy league I wouldn’t hate.) Maybe it’s the 80 degree weather that’s making it feel like baseball should already be here – probably won’t feel it quite the same in a couple weeks when it’s freezing again.

Yes, a new episode!

There is a catch: it’s a subscriber only show over at F4online. If you’ve got $10 and you’re not a subscriber, it’s exactly what you’d think: worth the money.

Plus, you get the Wrestling Observer Newsletter, and I hear that’s good too.

So, it’s much later than I wanted to do this. If I wait much longer, I’ll forget the 5% I still remember I wanted to say.

Phoenix was nice. I don’t know if it even got to 70 degrees during the weekend I was there, but it felt like 90 from where I was coming from. It looked a lot different. Lots of empty areas; where as here, those empty areas tend to be places where someone had plans to build something and gave up half way thru, Arizona is a lot of subdivisions of empty houses next to tracts of untouched grass and not much else. Not a lot of grass though. You leave a lot of land unattended to here, and the weeds are taller than people by the time it’s cold. Phoenix grass is low to the ground and sparse.

The grass still is green, and so is the cacti, and so is just about nothing else. Where they’ve given up on grass, they’ve replaced it with rock and and sand, and the people designing houses and others buildings are a bit too attached to theme. The color palette seems to range from light sand all the way up dark sand. It was explained to me that the cactus are often secured to the ground to prevent people from stealing them, and it didn’t make much sense to me at the time why you’d want to steal something as painful to transport as a cactus. A few days later, I decided the people must desperately want a non-sand colored object in our life.

The spring training ballparks all seemed on the nicer side for what are essentially minor league parks. Besides Ho Ho Kam, we stopped by Tempe Diablo Stadium (home of insanely expensive concessions) and Peoria Stadium (a nice new two team facility, even if it does have a surprisingly small and generic gift shop), and went by a great majority of the other ones. I think, of all of them they saw, Ho Ho Kam looked the least modern. It definitely felt like they were desperately trying to squeeze as many seats as possible and had run of room for more. The extra grandstand extensions most of all looked ill fitting, like they were in such a hurry to get more seats than they didn’t have time to make it look good.

The Cubs played Arizona the first day, an exciting 8-7 comeback win. I left my camera in my luggage for that. Besides the backups making an inspired really to win, the highlight was Justin Upton crushing a ball to left field for a grand slam, the ball connecting near the top of the scoreboard.

I did take photos the next day (including at the SEA/SD building), when the White Sox annihilated the Cubs. I really need to get a scanner so you can appreciate my efforts at scoring the game. In some way, it wasn’t as tricky as I thought, because they were only planning to play 2 groups of players (they ended up with more; this is the game where Andres Blanco got hurt, and essentially lost his spot on the roster.) The Cubs give out lists of their extended roster, so figuring out who is who based on the number is too troubling; the trouble is figuring out who goes where in the batting order, or at least managing things until the new guys come up and you can verify their spots.

The last game never actually took place, but I had lots of photos of various warmups. I tried to get video of Starlin Castro taking batting practice (and special fungo fielding practice; he had one notable bad backhand try, and got a supportive lecture from Alan Trammell after.) The rain storm was the kind of rain storm where they’d probably try starting if this was a real game, and they did make an effort to dry things out as best as they could, but then suddenly gave up.

It did come down really hard shortly after they gave up on the game, but there are no long rain storms in Phoenix (expert knowledge of three days), and it was clear and drying up within an hour. Still got every game canceled.

Only baseball can get people to be so thrilled to see scrimmages. Basketball barnstorms into towns they don’t ever go, because the usual towns aren’t going to pay for 5 extra games that don’t matter. Football preseason is a plague. Baseball preseason is just inconsequential, but the locations and the timing make it feel much more like a rebirth (and much less like time killing.) I’m not sure if it’s something I’d want to do again, but that more of a personal thing (feels like I spend too much time on the irrelevant, or the barely relevant), but if you haven’t done it, I’d recommend it. It definitely feels like a vacation.